Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kmhx 220323 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1023 PM EST Thu Nov 21 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will gradually slide offshore tonight. A mainly
dry cold front will push through the area Friday night, then
lift back north as a warm front Saturday with a stronger cold
front pushing through the area Saturday night. High pressure
will build over the area late this weekend into early next week,
with another front approaching the area mid week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 1010 PM Thursday...little changes needed for the late
evening update. High pressure centered along the coast will
continue to slide offshore overnight. Temps continue in the 40s
this evening with a few colder locals dipping into the upper
30s closer to the coast near the center of the high and where
high clouds are thinnest. Beginning to see a light S to SW
breeze develop across western sections where pressure gradients
are beginning tighten some, not that strong around 3-5 kt but
just enough to keep temps from falling further or even warm a
few degrees. Guidance showing clouds thinning after midnight
but also expect to see press gradients continue to tighten some
as a frontal system approaches and light mixing will continue to
limit additional cooling.

&&

Short term /6 am Friday morning through 6 PM Friday/...
as of 300 PM thurs...the sfc high will continue to move further southeast
from the coast, while a cold front approaches the region from the
west. Clouds will gradually increase and lower throughout the day.
Most of the day will be dry with a possible slight chance of showers
late in the day along the northern zones; ahead of the frontal
boundary. Models have trended drier, therefore reduced pops and
coverage area. Low level thicknesses is supporting highs in the
low/mid 60s over the NE to upper 60s near Duplin, and Onslow
counties.

&&

Long term /Friday night through Thursday/...
as of 200 PM Thu...unsettled weather still expected for for
Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure will build back over
the area late this weekend into early next week. Another cold
front will but with limited moisture approach the area mid next
week.

Friday night through Saturday night...a backdoor cold front
will push south through the area Fri night and early Sat, then
lift back north through the area during Sat. Looks like moisture
will be limited Fri night into Sat morning so not expecting
much precipitation during this time and will keep pops at a
minimum. Better chances for rain western and northern areas Sat
afternoon with the retreating front. Pops increase to likely
all areas Sat night as the front crosses the area. Could see
some thunder Sat night, especially near the coast. Temps Sat
will be tricky due to with cloud cover and location of frontal
boundary during peak heating. Temps across the southern areas
will likely be able to climb in the mid to upper 60s, while
temps across the northern forecast area may struggle to break 60
deg.

Sunday through Thursday...dry weather looks to return late
weekend into early next week as the cold front pushes offshore
early sun followed by high pres building in from the west Sunday
into Tue. Slightly below normal temps expected behind the front
with highs 55-60 deg through Mon and lows in the upper 30s to
mid 40s. Highs should warm into the low to mid 60s on Tue and
mid to upper 60s on Wed. A cold front with limited moisture will
approach from the west mid week, with next rain chance Wednesday.
The models are continuing to trend drier with moisture having a
tough time making it east of the mountains. Thanksgiving day is
forecast to be dry and cool with highs 55-60.

&&

Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
short term /through Friday/...
as of 730 PM Thursday...pred VFR conditions expected through
the taf period with periods of mid and high clouds streaming
through. Fog potential appears minimal as lows not expected to
reach cross over temps and light mixing expected later tonight
as gradients begin to tighten ahead of a frontal system.
Gradients tighten further Friday and clouds see SW wind gusts
around 15-20 kt late morning through the afternoon.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 200 PM Thu...periods of sub-VFR possible Friday night
into early Sat mainly in ceilings due to increasing low level
moisture, then better chances late Sat and Sat night as a
frontal system and associated precipitation moves through the
area. Pred VFR is expected to return sun continuing into Tue as
high pressure builds back over the area.

&&

Marine...
short term /through Friday/...
as of 1015 PM Thursday...high pressure centered over the waters
will continue to slide offshore overnight with winds veering to
west to SW and increase to around 10-15 kt after midnight. Seas
have subsided to 2-4 ft this evening but not expected to drop
much further.

SW winds increase Friday morning to around 15-25 knots ahead of
cold front with small craft adv conditions starting tomorrow
mid-morning and continuing through most of the day for the
coastal waters and Pamlico Sound. Seas will also build back to
4-6 ft Friday afternoon.

Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 200 PM Thu...winds will be veering and decreasing Fri
night as a backdoor cold front moves south through the waters. West
winds 15-20 kt ahead of the front will become north/NE around 15 kt
overnight behind the front. Seas 4-6 ft in the early Fri
evening will subside to 2-4 ft late. Sat the front will drift
back north through the waters with NE winds 10-15 kt early
veering to S/SW in the afternoon with seas remaining 2-4 ft.
Conditions will deteriorate quickly Sat night, as a period of
strong SW winds 20-30 kt develop ahead of the front...with the
potential for a brief period of gale force gusts. Seas will be
building very quickly to 6-10 ft Sat night into early sun. Winds
will shift to northwest 15-25 kt behind the front sun, with large seas
gradually subsiding during the afternoon and evening with
offshore flow. Mon northwest winds 10-15 kt will diminish to 5-10 kt as
high pressure builds over the waters, with winds Tue become SW
in the afternoon. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft.

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 3 PM EST Friday for amz135-
150.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 10 PM EST Friday for amz152-
154.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 am to 7 PM EST Friday for amz156-
158.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mhx
near term...sk

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations