Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 140157
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
957 PM EDT sun Oct 13 2019
a cold front will approach from the west later tonight into
Monday before slowly moving offshore Monday night. High
pressure will quickly pass through the area on Tuesday. Low
pressure will move up the East Coast Wednesday, and push a cold
front offshore Wednesday night. Cooler high pressure will build
in late week and into next weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
as of 1000 PM Sunday...a fairly robust line of showers and
thunderstorms is working its way into the western edges of the
forecast area at this time. Upstream observations show wind
gusts of 30-40 mph with this system. These values are possible
across the southern half of the area with locations from
Greenville north and east not likely to see values nearly as
high. Mrms observations show anywhere from a quarter to a half
of an inch with localized areas of up to an inch possible. The
system has accelerated with time and thus have sped up the
timing with this forecast package with much of the activity
offshore of the Outer Banks by 12z Monday morning. Despite the
acceleration of the rain, the actual front remains well behind
and therefore still on track for overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s inland with readings closer to 70 along the coast.
Short term /6 am Monday morning through 6 PM Monday/...
as of 230 PM Sunday...weak cold front will cont to slowly
approach from the west. Lingering shra along the coast expected to
push offshore thru the morn with little to no pops for the aftn
as drier air works in. Will cont dry fcst for the aftn although
with heating may see enuf instab develop for an isold shra but
confidence too low to add pop. Will remain mild with highs
around 80 inland to mid/upr 70s CST.
Long term /Monday night through Sunday/...
as of 215 PM Sunday...a weak front will move across the area
Monday night with high pressure briefly building into the area
Tuesday. A stronger low pressure area and attendant cold front
will move across the area Wednesday with high pressure building
in through the rest of the week bringing a cooler and drier
Monday night and Tuesday...the cold push south of the area
Monday night and Tuesday with high pressure building in from the
northwest. Highs expected in the upper 70s to around 80 inland
to mid 70s along the coast both days as there will be little cold air advection
behind the front and return flow developing Tuesday afternoon
with the high quickly migrating offshore. Lows Monday night will
be in the mid to upper 50s inland to low to mid 60s along the
Tuesday night and Wednesday...a more robust upper level system
approaches Tuesday night with an area of low pressure developing
across the southeast and deepening as it tracks across the
Carolina Piedmont and off the Delmarva Peninsula Wednesday.
Isentropic lift increases across the area Tuesday evening with
widespread precip developing across the area after midnight. A
warm front will lift across the area late Tuesday night before
the cold front pushes through in the afternoon. Modest
instability will develop in the warm sector with strong shear
and forcing present, with some chances for thunderstorms ahead
of the cold front. There will be a risk for severe storms as
well, with MUCAPE values reaching 1000-1500 j/kg, under deep
layer shear of around 40 kts...will continue to monitor. We
could see beneficial rainfall with models showing widespread quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts around 3/4 to 1 inch. Temps remain seasonably mild
ahead of the front Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s,
but will see strong cold air advection develop late in the day and especially
overnight with lows expected in the upper 40s to lower 50s
inland to mid 50s coast.
Wednesday night through Saturday...strong high pressure builds
in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing dry weather and a
much cooler airmass. High expected in the mid to upper 60s
with lows in the mid to upper 40s inland to low to mid 50s along
the coast. The high migrates offshore next weekend with ridging
building aloft with dry conditions persisting and Max temps
warming into the 70s.
Aviation /02z Monday through Friday/...
short term /through Monday/...
As of 800 PM Sunday...a line of heavier showers is making its way
across central NC at this time and is expected to move into western
areas of the forecast area within the next couple of hours. Light to
moderate rain can be expected. Upstream observations show ceilings
dropping to MVFR with the onset of the rain and further falling to
IFR levels in some of the heavier showers and along and behind the
precipitation. This will occur first at pgv and isolated prior to 3z and
then closer to 6z for ewn and oaj. Visibilities may also fall to
similar categories during this time. Not much wind with the
precipitation so expect variable at 5 kts or so. Rain should clear
out from west to east, finally exiting the coast near or just after
12z Monday morning. Conditions should gradually return to VFR
by mid to late morning.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
As of 800 PM Sunday. Conditions should remain VFR through
Tuesday before the next feature approaches from the southwest on
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This developing low pressure system
will bring chances for heavier rain and thunderstorms to the area on
Wednesday and Wednesday evening before high pressure moves in from
the west. Conditions return to VFR Thursday and through the rest of
the week and weekend Continental high pressure dominates the pattern.
short term /tonight thru Mon/...
as of 230 PM Sunday...swell conts to subside with seas now 5 ft
or less and have dropped the Small Craft Advisory. Cold front will approach from
the west slowly with SW winds 10 to 20 kts tonight into early Mon
with winds diminishing to 5 to 15 kts later Mon with dir
becoming west-southwest. The swell and gusty SW winds will keep seas 3 to 5
ft into early Mon then shld subside to 2 to 4 ft late Mon.
There is small window late tonight where could see some 6 ft
seas outer central wtrs when winds peak but for now will cap at
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
as of 220 PM Sunday...the front will push through Monday night
with winds becoming northwest to north around 5-10 kt as high
pressure builds into the region, which continues to veer
northeast to east Tuesday as the high migrates offshore. Seas
subside to 2-3 ft by early Tuesday morning and continues through
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to return mid week as a low pressure
area will develop across the southeast Tuesday night and then
lift across the area Wednesday. A warm front will lift across
the waters Tuesday night ahead of the low with winds becoming
south to southwest and increasing to 20-30 kt with higher gusts
and seas building to 6-10 ft. The front pushes through Wednesday
afternoon with winds becoming northwest around 15-25 kt
Wednesday, which gradually diminishes through the day Thursday.
Seas peak Wednesday afternoon and gradually subside Wednesday
night and Thursday.
as of 230 PM Sunday... water lvls remain quite high along the
coast and looks like could again flirt with minor flooding this
evening during next high tide so cont the coastal flood advry
from eastern Carteret north across the obx thru later this evening.
Cont high threat of rip currents north of Cape Hatteras thru this
NC...beach hazards statement through Monday evening for ncz203-205.
Coastal flood advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ncz196-