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fxus62 kmhx 190655 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
255 am EDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Synopsis...
strong high pressure will continue to build in from the north
and northeast though the end of the week bringing the first
touch of Fall weather to the area. The high will become centered
over the region this weekend then drift offshore early next
week.

&&

Near term /through today/...
as of 245 am Thu...high pres will cont to build S toward the
area today. Satl shows fairly extensive batch of scu spreading
onshore with obx now mainly cloudy with even some isold light
shra. The scu typically diminishes as shifts over the Mainland
but did increase sky cover a bit thru morn over ern half of
area. Shld see sct cu develop further inland today with heating.
Highs will be mainly in the low and mid 70s. Gusty NE winds
will cont CST but grad diminish thru the day.

&&

Short term /tonight/...
as of 245 am Thu...high pressure will cont to build S toward the
area. Shld see mclr skies across the region and as winds
diminish inland will have good radiational cooling with lows
approaching 50. Brz will cont CST with lows upr 50s to lower
60s.

&&

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/...
as of 300 am Wed...tc Humberto will bring indirect coastal
impacts to east NC through the end of the week, though high
pressure will build in bringing pleasant sensible weather to the
region with below climo temps for a change. By the weekend the
upper ridge will shift directly over the eastern Seaboard with
longwave troughing setting up over the intermountain west, and
temps moderating back to near normal, then above normal by early
next week.

Friday through Saturday...highs moderate a bit on Fri with a
rise in low lvl thicknesses supporting readings in the mid/upr
70s interior to low/mid 70s obx. Another chilly night Fri night
with sfc high directly overhead providing clr skies and calm
winds. Model guidance is typically too warm with such excellent
radiational cooling regimes and leaned the forecast a couple
degrees beyond the lowest guidance, resulting in a forecast of
lows in the low/mid 50s away from the beaches, to low 60s along
the coast. High temps moderate back to near climo in the low/mid
80s inland to upr 70s obx, though with the continued very dry
airmass (tds in the 50s) it will still feel very pleasant.

Sunday through Tuesday...return swrly flow continue to moderate
temps back to climo and above, with highs in the mid 80s, and
lows moderating back into the 60s. It will continue to be dry
however with upr ridge holding strong over the southeast conus,
although guidance suggests that ridge will eventually break down
with longwave troughing ejecting out of the central U.S.

&&

Aviation /07z Thursday through Monday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 1220 am Thu...high confidence in VFR conditions through
the taf cycle. Mainly clr thru mid morn then expect few to sct
cumulus to develop that will dissipate twrd evening. NE winds will
gust 15 to 20 kts for ern sites late morn into the aftn.

Long term /Fri through Monday/...
as of 310 am Wed...good flying conditions with mainly sunny
skies and lower humidities preventing widespread fog formation
through late week. With calm winds expected this weekend there
may be patchy light fg/br each morning.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 245 am Thu...gusty NE winds cont along the CST, however
speeds have started to decrease a bit and will drop Small Craft Advisory
Pamlico/Pungo river. As the high builds S today will cont to see
diminishing winds and expect Small Craft Advisory to end rest of sounds and
rivers by evening. For the cstl waters seas are quite high
and will be slow to diminish keeping Small Craft Advisory going thru period.
Winds of 20 to 30 kts this morn will diminish to mainly 10 to 20
kts this evening and be mainly 15 kts or less by late tonight.
Seas of 7 to 13 feet this morning will slowly subside to 5 to 10
feet tonight highest outer central and nrn wtrs.

Long term /Fri through Monday/...
as of 315 am Wed...Small Craft Advisory conditions or expected through much of
the long term with gusty NE winds early but dangerously large
seas lingering into the weekend as combined swells from tc
Humberto and gradient between the cyclone and building high
pressure impact the waters.

Dangerous seas will lag the decreasing wind as swells only
slowly subside. Swan wave model holds on to higher seas longer
than other guidance and favored a forecast showing seas
decreasing slightly faster. Still, at least 6 foot seas will
linger until Saturday evening. Winds veer westerly to
southwesterly for the weekend at 10 knots or less.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
as of 245 am Thu...winds have started to diminish over Pamlico
Sound so expect any increase in wtr lvl over srn tier to be
mainly 1 foot or less so will drop coastal flood advisory.
Longer period swells will cont today and tonight keeping a high
threat of rip currents all beaches. High surf will cont for the
east facing beaches from Cape Lookout north for breaking waves 8 ft
or more thru Fri.



&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz195-196-
199-203>205.
High surf advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ncz196-203>205.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for amz131-
137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for amz152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for amz156-158.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for amz150.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mhx
near term...rf
short term...rf

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