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fxus62 kmfl 141103 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
703 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with a
few showers possible today. A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled
out, primarily over southwest Florida this afternoon.


Prev discussion... /issued 403 am EDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

Short term...

Today through Tuesday...

Weak low-mid level ridging will remain in control through early
this week. At the surface, light onshore flow will be dictated by
a high pressure centered to our northeast and a stationary
boundary draped over the southeast Continental U.S. In the 06z wpc surface
analysis. A modest moisture gradient is noted on satellite derived
pwats to our north, between a tropical airmass and a narrow
corridor of modified Continental air. This signifies sufficient
moisture (pwats approx 1.6-1.7 inches) remains in place over
South Florida and the allow for the possible development of a few
showers this afternoon. Given the lighter easterly flow, coverage
is mainly expected over the interior and West Coast, where both
sea breeze boundaries collide.

Tuesday looks to be a bit drier than today as the lower precipitable water air
rounds the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge over the Gulf
of Mexico and spreads across the area. Temperatures should remain
on the warm side with afternoon highs in the mid 80s for the
eastern portions of South Florida, and upper 80s to low 90s across
the interior and Gulf Coast.

Long term...

Wednesday through Sunday...

The aforementioned stationary boundary will begin to gradually
nudge it's way southward by mid to late week as ridging aloft
gets pushed southeastward from a digging shortwave trough. Ahead
of the approaching boundary, winds will begin to veer out of the
south then southwest as surface high pressure also retreats
further into the Atlantic. The more southerly component in the
prevailing flow will allow tropical moisture to trickle back in
across the region but still remain relatively dry enough aloft,
keeping a slight chance to chance of pops in the forecast.
Likewise, southwesterly flow could allow for some patchy fog to
develop over the interior areas in the early morning hours on

Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) depict the frontal boundary stalling along
the southern tip of South Florida around Friday and then washing
out over the Florida straights late this weekend. Also during
this time, both models depict a deepening low over the Gulf of
Mexico, as a result of the shortwave trough traversing across the
Gulf Coast. Currently, the European model (ecmwf) is the faster and more robust
solution, with the low crossing northern Florida. While the GFS
keeps the low weaker and further to our west. Regardless, moisture
should return through the atmospheric column over the weekend,
along with increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage late this
week into the weekend. The finer details will continue to be
monitored with each model run.


Easterly winds will gradually diminish to around 10 knots or less
early this week before becoming more southerly to southwesterly
by the middle of the week.

Northeasterly swells in the Atlantic waters will also slowly
continue decreasing and be fully dissipated by middle of this
week. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire early this
morning for the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County, with a scec
thereafter for all of the Atlantic waters. Gulf waters should
remain below 2 feet.

Beach forecast...

The high risk of rip currents continues for all Atlantic beaches
through at least tonight, due to the enhanced northeast swell,
along with the modest easterly winds. While trending downward,
tides are still running about 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high
tides and should continue through at least this afternoon.
Flooding is still possible along coastal roadways and inlets along
the East Coast Metro areas and thus, the coastal flood advisory
remains in effect through this afternoon.

Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 85 73 85 73 / 10 10 10 0
Fort Lauderdale 85 76 85 76 / 20 10 10 0
Miami 86 75 86 74 / 20 10 10 0
Naples 88 72 88 74 / 30 30 10 0


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...high rip current risk through this evening for flz168-172-173.

Coastal flood advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for flz168-

Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT this morning for amz650-670.


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