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fxus64 kmeg 121200 cca 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion...corrected
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
600 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019

Update...aviation discussion.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019/

Discussion...
current radar imagery shows winter precipitation finally out of
the area with reports of lake effect snow in northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures have dropped significantly and will continue to drop
to into the lower teens in our northern counties. Wind chill
values are already reaching single digits in many areas and are
expected to continue through the rest of the morning. With these
low temperatures, wind chills and gusts expect a bitter cold
morning commute. Record cold temperatures are likely today,
generally reaching the upper 20s across the area, with wind chill
values reaching the 20s throughout the day.

Winds will start to decrease by tonight with clearing skies
allowing for strong radiational cooling. This will allow
temperatures to dip into the upper teens and lower 20s Wednesday
morning, likely breaking low temperature records. Temperatures
will start to climb throughout the remainder of the week with a
reinforcing cold front expected to approach the area Thursday.
Models show little to no precipitation with this front.
Temperatures Thursday will be in the upper to mid 40s, with lower
temperatures in our northern counties.

As the mid-level trough associated with the reinforcing cold
front moves through, a closed low aloft will form just east of
our area and move towards the coast. Thus, moving a ridge over our
area through the weekend and promoting dry weather. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the 50s. Another trough will
move east from the plains Monday, but looks to be dry with the
latest model solutions so left out the mention of precipitation.

Below is a table consisting of our climate sites, the forecasted
high today, and the record low maximum temperature with the year
it occurred.

Memphis...29...37 (1920)
Jackson...27...40 (1976)
Jonesboro...29...39 (2014)
Tupelo...32...43 (1968)

Sgw

&&

Aviation...12z tafs

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24-30 hours. North wind
around 15kt with gusts to 25kt will gradually weaken and veer
through the period.

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Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.

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