Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 201726
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1126 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 429 am CST Wed Nov 20 2019/
High pressure is currently building over the region. A longwave
ridge is centered over Continental U.S. And will continue to build east.
Skies are clear with calm winds which has helped temperatures
drop down into the low 30s to low 40s across the County Warning
As the high moves east, winds will switch out of the south-
southwest which will help bring in slightly above normal
temperatures across the south. Highs across the area are expected
to be in the mid-to-upper 60s today which is about 5 or so
degrees above normal. Dry and pleasant weather will persist
through the end of the day which will mark the end of the
relatively quiet weather.
A pre-frontal trough will spark scattered showers across the area
on Thursday. The good news is, it won't be a completely rainy day
as the ridge will be reluctant to move east with a meridional
pattern in place. We'll see increasing clouds, however,
temperatures will still remain in the the mid-to-upper 60s for
highs with a southerly flow situated over the region.
The cold front will finally pass slowly through the area on
Friday which is when the bulk of the rain is expected to fall.
Total rainfall amounts from Thursday to Saturday morning are
forecast to be in the 1"-2" range. Friday is looking like a wet
day with the front dragging through the mid-south. The setup on
Friday is synoptically supportive of isolated elevated
thunderstorms with weak elevated instability, a 30-45kt llj, and
moderate-to-high shear over the area. The best chance for
thunderstorms will be over northern Mississippi. Severe weather is
not expected with very little instability forecast at this time.
Temperatures will fall with highs near 60 on Friday.
High pressure will begin to build over the area Saturday
afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler after the cold front
moves through with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s. We'll
stay dry and below normal through Tuesday when our next system
rolls through. Models vary quite a bit with the timing of the next
18z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for the much of forecast period. Rain
showers will start to move into western sections of the mid-south
by late Thursday morning. Winds will be mainly from the south at 5
to 10 knots for much of the forecast period.