Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 201114
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
614 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019
see the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 419 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/
skies are currently clear across the mid-south with high pressure
in place and continued southerly flow. The area will mainly remain
dry through Wednesday before our next system moves through on
Thursday. However, diurnally driven showers and storms will be
possible across the County Warning Area during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and
Wednesday with the best chance being in the northern half of the
area in Tennessee. Some storms could be strong to severe.
A slow moving cold front will move through the mid-south on
Thursday and bring a better chance for showers and storms. Some
storms could be strong to severe. A marginal risk has been placed
over northwest Tennessee.
Behind the front, temperatures will finally
drop into the upper 80s. Off-and-on precipitation will be
possible through the weekend as a few weak perturbations move
along the trough axis. Models disagree on how much coverage there
will be with showers and storms, so I have adjusted pops down a
bit until models come to a better consensus on the coverage.
After the weekend, guidance suggests multiple disturbances will
move through the region which could help keep temperatures down
into the upper 80s.
Generally VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with
light south to southwest winds across the mid-south. A diurnal cu
field between 4-5 kft will develop later this morning with a few
afternoon showers/thunderstorms across the County Warning Area. A more organized
complex of storms will move into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and
may hold together long enough to approach kjbr/kmkl. However,
confidence is too low to include mention of thunder in the current
set of tafs. Will continue to monitor the trends upstream.
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Tennessee...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-