Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 221725 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1125 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Update...aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 1033 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019/

Skies remain cloudy across the mid-south this morning with
temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to around 60 degrees. The
cold front is currently over north Mississippi at this time and
continues to move slowly south. One area of rain has just about
exited the region with another area moving into portions of
eastern Arkansas. Expect more rain during the afternoon hours with
temperatures remaining on the cool side.


Previous discussion... /issued 422 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019/


The latest surface analysis places a cold front from Cleveland, Ohio
back through Dyersburg, Tennessee and back through Little Rock, Arkansas. A
surface low was analyzed along the front near the arklatex at this
hour. Temperatures north of the front are in the lower 50s with
low to mid 60s south of the front. The latest knqa radar scan
shows moderate showers along and north of the front, with an area
of thunderstorms moving along I-40 in eastern Arkansas.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected through late
morning across much of the mid-south as the cold front slowly sags
southward. The front is expected to stall over north Mississippi
by this afternoon, with a lull in shower activity expected across
much of the area. The aforementioned surface low, currently over
arklatex, will lift through the area this afternoon and into this
evening. This will bring another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the area through the overnight hours.

The main upper level low over The Four Corners is expected to
eject quickly across the lower Mississippi Valley overnight and
help push the front south of the mid-south by early Saturday
morning. A few Post-frontal showers will be possible through late
Saturday morning, mainly along the Tennessee River. Behind this
system, the westerlies will remain progressive.

Surface high pressure will build in briefly for Sunday and Monday,
before a quick moving system arrives Tuesday night. Temperatures
will moderate some during this period, with upper 50s to lower
60s expected on Monday and Tuesday.

A Stout shortwave will cross The Rockies early Tuesday and eject
across the Central Plains during the morning hours. At the
surface, a maturing low pressure system is expected to form near
Oklahoma and lift northeast towards Saint Louis during the
afternoon hours. This will allow a modified warm sector to move
into north Mississippi, and maybe as far north as west Tennessee,
Tuesday night. A quick-moving cold front is then expected to swing
through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday morning. Luckily, the
best dynamics will actually reside to our north, negating the
potential for any severe weather. About half an inch is expected
with the quick-moving system.

Behind the front, dry conditions will briefly return as the
subtropical ridge builds in on Wednesday. Thanksgiving is still a
bit of a toss-up at the moment, as models are struggling with
resolving shortwaves rotating around the ridge. Either way, the
pattern looks to remain wet and unsettled in the extended period.



Aviation...18z tafs

Another round of showers is overspreading the midsouth. Cigs and
vis have improved a bit but IFR to even LIFR should still prevail
for most of the upcoming 24-30 hour taf cycle. Thunderstorms are
possible at tup, but we do not expect them elsewhere. Jbr may see
some mid to late morning improvement tomorrow, but improvement at
mem after 18z. However, typically these low clouds/br tend to stick
along longer than expected, so leaned toward less clearing for
now. Winds generally north to northeast around 10kt, shifting from
the west tonight into tomorrow, 5-10kt.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations