Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 150930
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
330 am CST Fri Nov 15 2019
A mostly dry forecast is on tap for the next 7 days. Temperatures
will finally turn warmer with some near to slightly above normal
temperatures during the early to middle part of next week. The
best chance of rain in the near future appears to be Tuesday, but
that chance looks minimal.
A dry, weak cold front has moved through the midsouth, now
pushing into central Alabama and southern Mississippi.
Temperatures across the region range from the middle 20s to low
30s under clear skies.
A narrow ridge will build across the midsouth today on the back
side of a cutoff low that will gradually sink south across
Alabama, approaching the Florida Panhandle late this afternoon. A
broader ridge and surface high pressure will encompass the central
and Southern Plains. The broader ridge and surface high will
slowly shift over the midsouth early in the the weekend,
resulting in warmer temperatures, lots of sunshine and dry
conditions. On Sunday, another weak and mostly dry front is
expected to move quickly across the area, but due to lack of
moisture, impact looks minimal. Ridging behind the front will
likely bring US above normal temperatures during the middle of the
upcoming work week. Wednesday looks like the warmest day featuring
highs in the middle 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Southwest flow returns late in the work week. Guidance is in
fairly good agreement in bringing a cold front through the area
late Thursday or Friday resulting in our best chance of rain for
the long term forecast. Expect cooler conditions to return Friday
into next weekend.
VFR conditions and light winds expected overnight. North/north-northeast winds
will increase on Friday to 7-10 kts then become light by Friday