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000 
FXUS64 KMEG 220453
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated 06z Aviation Discussion.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...

Showers have just about left NE MS this evening. The clearing line 
is slowly progressing across the Mid-South this evening. Lows will
dip into the 40s. Updated timing of clouds and pops otherwise 
forecast on track. Tuesday looks sunny, breezy and cool. 

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ 

Temperatures over the last several hours have remained fairly 
steady across the Midsouth. Rain is now confined to portions of 
West TN near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi and 
continues to shift quickly to the East. A cold front is moving 
into East Arkansas and should shift across the Mississippi River 
by sunset. A much drier airmass, featuring dew points in the upper
30s to low 40s will shift over the Midsouth tonight. Surface high
pressure will build over the Midsouth, shifting over Alabama and 
Mississippi by Midweek. Flow aloft will be from the Northwest over
the Midsouth. We should experience several dry days tomorrow 
through at least Thursday. Temperatures will be Fall like, 
featuring lows in the 40s the highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. 

By Friday, the surface high will shift over the Carolinas and 
weak return flow will set up over the Mississippi River Valley. A 
few showers may return late Friday, but the short duration of weak
return flow makes coverage questionable. A weak cold front is 
expected to move across the area on Friday. 

Models are in poor agreement over the weekend. The GFS features a
high amplitude, narrow trough shifting across the Mississippi 
River Valley Saturday with a weak ridge returning Saturday night
into Sunday resulting in minimal precipitation. The ECMWF 
features a deep cutoff low over West Texas late Friday, gradually 
tracking across the Mississippi River via Arkansas, into 
Southeast Missouri by Sunday morning. This latter scenario would 
likely result in significant rainfall across all of the Midsouth 
over the weekend. Not ready to commit to either solution 
yet...but will lean toward the GFS as it is climatologically more 
common. Will advertise low pops for now and wait for better 
consensus.

30

&&

AVIATION...
/06z TAFs/ 

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. 
LLWS is expected at MEM and should end around 08Z. West winds 
will increase after 15z Tuesday with gusts up to 20kts. Gusty 
winds should start to taper off by 00z.

SGW

&&



.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.

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