Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KMEG 220453 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1153 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 .UPDATE... Updated 06z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ DISCUSSION... Showers have just about left NE MS this evening. The clearing line is slowly progressing across the Mid-South this evening. Lows will dip into the 40s. Updated timing of clouds and pops otherwise forecast on track. Tuesday looks sunny, breezy and cool. SJM PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/ Temperatures over the last several hours have remained fairly steady across the Midsouth. Rain is now confined to portions of West TN near the Tennessee River and Northeast Mississippi and continues to shift quickly to the East. A cold front is moving into East Arkansas and should shift across the Mississippi River by sunset. A much drier airmass, featuring dew points in the upper 30s to low 40s will shift over the Midsouth tonight. Surface high pressure will build over the Midsouth, shifting over Alabama and Mississippi by Midweek. Flow aloft will be from the Northwest over the Midsouth. We should experience several dry days tomorrow through at least Thursday. Temperatures will be Fall like, featuring lows in the 40s the highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. By Friday, the surface high will shift over the Carolinas and weak return flow will set up over the Mississippi River Valley. A few showers may return late Friday, but the short duration of weak return flow makes coverage questionable. A weak cold front is expected to move across the area on Friday. Models are in poor agreement over the weekend. The GFS features a high amplitude, narrow trough shifting across the Mississippi River Valley Saturday with a weak ridge returning Saturday night into Sunday resulting in minimal precipitation. The ECMWF features a deep cutoff low over West Texas late Friday, gradually tracking across the Mississippi River via Arkansas, into Southeast Missouri by Sunday morning. This latter scenario would likely result in significant rainfall across all of the Midsouth over the weekend. Not ready to commit to either solution yet...but will lean toward the GFS as it is climatologically more common. Will advertise low pops for now and wait for better consensus. 30 && AVIATION... /06z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. LLWS is expected at MEM and should end around 08Z. West winds will increase after 15z Tuesday with gusts up to 20kts. Gusty winds should start to taper off by 00z. SGW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None.