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afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1114 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Discussion...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 1105 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Update...

Some sprinkles or light rain may affect portions of northeast
Mississippi over the next couple of hours as a weak cold front
that currently stretches from near Stuttgart, Arkansas
northeastward to Paris, Tennessee moves through. The atmosphere
remains relatively dry thus a lot of the precipitation may not
reach the ground. Will continue with 20 probability of precipitation. However, made some
minor tweaks to sky conditions. Update will be out shortly.

Krm

Discussion... /issued 415 am CST Thu Nov 14 2019/

Current satellite shows mid and high level clouds over the area
keeping our morning temperatures below freezing. Zonal flow aloft
with some weak ridging will move off to the east, and another
trough over the plains will dig southward through the day today. A
reinforcing cold front will move through with the trough, but
models still keep most of the area dry, with a chance of light
showers in our far southeast counties in northern Mississippi.
High temperatures Friday will be a few degrees cooler than today
as the trough develops into a upper closed low over the mid-south
Friday and moves southeast Friday evening. Temperatures Saturday
will be warmer with highs in the low 50s for most of the area. The
upper low will move towards the coast Saturday, and another
trough will move eastward from the Central Plains, placing the
mid-south under a ridge Sunday. Highs will warm up a bit more
Sunday with temperatures in the lower to mid 50s.

The aforementioned trough moving from the plains late Sunday into
Monday will continue eastward, but long term models differ on
timing/ strength of the trough. However, most models agree on
keeping most of the mid-south dry. Another trough will develop in
the plains and dig southward towards the region Tuesday. The GFS
shows shows precipitation over west Tennessee Tuesday morning into
the evening, but European model (ecmwf) brings precipitation to northern
Mississippi late Tuesday. Will continue to monitor, but for now,
went with no pops over the area. Another trough will move eastward
from the plains next Thursday. This trough has a bit more
moisture, so added in slight chance pops for Thursday and Friday.

Sgw

&&

Aviation...

VFR. A weak cold front is pushing through the mid-south. Light SW
winds will veer to northwest then north this afternoon and remain fairly
light through tonight. Gradient will increase a bit Fri with
north winds around 10 kts.

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.

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