Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 192320
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019/
Hot and humid conditions will continue through Wednesday as an
upper ridge of high pressure remains located over the Southern
Plains. Dewpoints will continue to pool up the Delta ahead of an
approaching front. Heat indices will climb to 105 degrees or
greater each afternoon. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.
Diurnal convection will also be possible each afternoon into the
evening hours. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will
come late Tuesday afternoon into the early evening as a line of
convection is expected to form across Missouri ahead of the
approaching front and move into the mid-south during this time.
Some storms could be strong to severe.
A similar trend may occur on Wednesday as well as a couple of
models are showing another line developing ahead of the front that
may push into northeast Arkansas, the Missouri bootheel, and
northwest Tennessee during the evening hours. Some of these storms
could be strong to severe as well.
Models differ on timing in regards to when the front will actually
move into the County Warning Area. Regardless, increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms will occur from Thursday through early part of the
weekend due to the proximity of the front.
Weak upper ridging will return by the latter part of the weekend
into early next week. Chances for convection will be more
Highs from Thursday through early next week will range from the
mid 80s to the lower 90s.
Patchy fog/br possible overnight, otherwise light south winds,
2-6kt, will continue with VFR conditions. Fog/br is most likely
near mkl and tup. Scattered showers and thunderstorms AR expected
again tomorrow afternoon
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Clay-Craighead-
MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Tennessee...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-