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fxus64 kmeg 241936 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
236 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019



Discussion...

The moist and unsettled pattern will continue over the mid-south
into the middle of next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
are expected. A cold front will move through the area mid to late
next week, bringing drier and somewhat cooler air and reducing
pops.

Tonight through tuesday: primary focusing mechanisms for precip will
be stalled surface front across northern MS/eastern AR, and upper
level impulses moving across. Guidance is in agreement moving a weak
system across the area tonight. Expect diurnal showers/storms to
persist into evening, with another round of precip developing or
moving NE into the area by daybreak Sunday.

A more substantial upper system will approach the mid-south Sunday
into Sunday night. Support from this upper system will lead to a
more widespread round of precip. Severe weather threat is low, but
locally heavy rain with very moist airmass (pw greater than 2
inches) may occur. Will include in haz weather outlook for Sunday
and Sunday night. Guidance is a little slower to take upper system
out of our area, so will nudge higher pops farther west on
Monday.

Monday night should be quieter, with cold front due to arrive on
Tuesday. GFS seems a little quick with the front, so will trend
toward the NAM timing but bring higher pops to our northwest counties by
12z Tue. Pops increase areawide on Tuesday, with environment more
supportive of organized storms along/ahead of front. Will keep
"strong" wording in severe weather potential statement. Will keep lingering pops Tuesday night as
the front and storms exit the area.

Wednesday through saturday: mainly dry conditions expected behind
front, with drier and somewhat cooler air settling in. GFS and European model (ecmwf)
suggest a reinforcing front toward the end of forecast period, with
GFS again faster.

Gw



&&

Aviation... 18z tafs

A slow-approaching upper disturbance over AR, a tropical airmass
and numerous surface boundaries will provide chances for thunderstorms and rain
through early evening. Initial cluster of thunderstorms and rain will likely
develop along an northwest-southeast boundary extending from south of mem to
south of tup at midday. This activity should lift north, possibly
followed by additional rain showers/thunderstorms and rain clusters lifting north through
north MS into early evening.

Despite loss of surface heating this evening, rain showers chances will
continue this evening and overnight, ahead of upper level trof
that will drop into the midsouth on Sunday. Ts cannot be ruled
out during any portion of the next 30 hours, but will favor warmer
periods of the day, from 15z through 23z Sunday.

Pwb

&&



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.

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