Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 222328
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
628 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
Clear and dry conditions will persist across the midsouth for
another couple of days as the result of transient high pressure
shifting from East Texas today, over north Louisiana tonight, then
over central Mississippi/Alabama by tomorrow afternoon. Highs this
afternoon will top out in the middle to upper 60s with upper 60s to
low 70s tomorrow and Thursday. The coolest readings over the next
several days will likely be tonight near the Tennessee River where
we should see a few upper 30s. Otherwise, most of the midsouth
should dip into the low to middle 40s tonight and Thursday morning.
By Friday, the surface high will shift over the Carolinas and
weak return flow will set up over the Mississippi River valley. A
few showers may return late Friday, but the short duration of weak
return flow makes coverage questionable. A weak cold front is
expected to move across the area on Friday.
Models are in poor agreement over the weekend, but seem to be
trending toward a wetter/warmer solution. The GFS features a high
amplitude, narrow trough shifting across the Mississippi River
valley Saturday with a weak ridge returning Saturday night into
Sunday resulting in minimal precipitation. The European model (ecmwf) and Canadian
feature a deep cutoff low over West Texas late Friday, gradually
tracking across the Mississippi River via Arkansas, into southeast
Missouri by Sunday morning. This latter scenario would likely
result in significant rainfall across all of the midsouth over the
weekend. Not ready to commit fully to either solution yet...but
will lean toward the consensus of the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian. Will
advertise low to moderate chance(30-50%)pops for now and wait for
better consensus. Weekend temperatures should be mild. Morning
lows will be mostly in the low to middle 50s, with highs in the
middle to upper 60s.
We should see a drying trend Sunday into early next week,
temperatures should remain mild, similar to the weekend.
VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Winds will
increase Wednesday morning with gusts of 15-20kts at mem and jbr.
Winds will taper off at mem by Wednesday evening.