Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 220008
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
608 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019
Update... /issued 302 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2019/
Skies remain cloudy across the mid-south this afternoon with
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. A cold front currently
extends from northeast Illinois through southeast Missouri and
into North Texas. Some showers continue to move across north
Mississippi and extreme southern sections of west Tennessee.
The cold front will continue to move southeast tonight and
moving into the region. More showers will develop ahead of the
front and move through the mid-south tonight. Temperatures will
not cool down too much with the clouds and rain moving through
with lows Friday morning in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The cold front
will remain over north Mississippi on Friday with more showers
expected for much of the day. Temperatures will be cooler behind
the front but a little warmer ahead of it with highs in the upper
40s to mid 60s. The cold front will start to pull away from the
region Friday night with rain beginning to taper off from west to
east. Temperatures will be cooler than tonight with lows Saturday
morning from upper 30s to around 50 degrees.
Once the cold front exits the region, rain will finally end over
eastern sections of the mid-south Saturday morning. Temperatures
will remain on the cool side Saturday with highs in the upper 40s
to mid 50s. High pressure will then take control of the weather
from Saturday night through Monday night keeping things dry.
Temperatures will warm up some both Sunday and Monday.
A large storm system will start to move into the Central Plains by
Monday night and slow move east Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
result in more showers across the mid-south both days with
temperatures warming up into 60s. A weak frontal boundary may
approach the region on Thanksgiving day bringing a chance of rain
to the mid-south.
00z taf set
Several rounds of rain will affect the taf sites as a surface low
will develop and move along a slow moving cold front. Expect light
shower activity to occur ahead of the front with possible MVFR
ceilings. Winds will be from the south around 10 kts. Have added some
low level wind shear at kmem, kmkl, and kjbr overnight as winds
just above the surface will be from the SW at 40 kts. The front will
move into kjbr around 07-10z switching winds around to the NE.
Expect ceilings to lower to IFR at this time. Some heavier rain will
also occur along the front dropping visibilities. The front will continue
to sink slowly to the south through the morning. Expect a lull in
rain during the late morning into the afternoon hours before
another round of rain pushes up from the SW ahead of the surface low.
Some elevated thunder could be occur with this second round which
will move in around 22-00z. For now have left mention of thunder
out at kmem, but will re-evaluate for future tafs.