Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 152053
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
253 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019
High pressure will remain over the mid-south through much of the
weekend. As a result, a gradual warming trend will continue across
the area. Highs will range from the upper 40s to the upper 50s.
An upper trof and associated cold front will move into the region
late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Can't rule out some
patchy rain occurring near the MO/Arkansas and Tennessee/Kentucky border. As a
result, have introduced 20 probability of precipitation across northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri bootheel, and northwest Tennessee.
Another trof will move into the area Monday into Monday night
which will keep clouds around the area. Several models also show some
patchy light rain or drizzle occurring as the trof moves into the
area despite the atmosphere being relatively dry. There remains
some timing differences so will hold off on pops, but would not be
surprised if probability of precipitation will need to be added during future forecasts.
An upper ridge will build into the area behind the trof which will
allow the mid-south to see highs return to the 60s by Wednesday
and Thursday. However, the warmer weather will be short-lived as
a cold front will move into the area Thursday into Thursday night.
This will be the best chance for rain over the upcoming 7 days
as showers develop ahead of the front.
Clear skies through the period. Expect north winds at 7-10 kts
this afternoon with some higher gusts at times, especially at
ktup. Winds will diminish to less than 5 kts tonight.