Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 172010
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Its hot again today, we reached 100 degrees yesterday for the
first time since July 2016. The last time we reached 101 was on
July 30th 2012. That same year and month we reached 102 on July
6th and 103 on July 5th.
Luckily our dew points are in the middle 60s instead of middle
70s which would certainly boost heat indices heat warning levels.
Currently our heat indices are only a degree or two above
temperatures, generally between 98 and 102 degrees.
Overnight lows should fall into the middle 60s to middle 70s,
coolest near the Tennessee River and warmest near Memphis. Thank
goodness for the longer lights, if we were still in midsummer,
we'd be lucky to fall out of the 80s at our normally warmest
Tomorrow, the ridge that has been centered over the area is
expected to start to shift a bit to the east and thicknesses will
fall slightly. We should see afternoon high temperatures come
down a degree or so, but remain well above normal through the work
week. We likely will remain above normal through the weekend as
well, but hopefully stay below 90.
Newly developed tropical storm Imelda may our best chance for
relief from the heat and rainfall. Imelda is currently near
Houston and expected to drift slowly to the north. Its remnants
should get caught up in strengthening southwest flow by Saturday
and eventually turn to the northeast. Guidance is in poor
agreement with this solution, but the GFS is the best case
scenario for the midsouth.
If we miss out on rain over the weekend, is appears more likely
that a shortwave and associated cold front will approach the
midsouth early next week. Hopefully this will bring US
conditions more typical of mid September than mid August along
with some much needed rain.
VFR at all sites...with a brief window for reduced visibility/IFR
conditions at mkl late tonight from fog. Light winds overall.