Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kmeg 162024 
afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
324 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Discussion...

Its one of the hottest days we have seen in quite a while across
the midsouth. 3 PM temperatures are mostly in the middle to upper
90s. Luckily our dew points are in the middle 60s instead of
middle 70s. As a result our heat indices are only a degree or two
above temperatures. Overnight lows should fall into the middle
60s to middle 70s, coolest near the Tennessee River and warmest
near Memphis. Thank goodness for the longer lights, if we were
still in midsummer, we'd be lucky to fall out of the 80s at our
normally warmest locations.

Tomorrow should be nearly identical to today as so expect highs
in the upper 90s once again. By Wednesday, the ridge that has
been centered over the area is expected to start to shift a bit to
the east. We should see afternoon high temperatures come down a
degree or so, but remain well above normal through the work week.
We likely will remain above normal through the weekend as well,
but hopefully stay below 90. No organized/widespread rain is
expected, though a few afternoon thunderstorms should become
slightly more likely Friday. Guidance continues to a show a
pattern change on days 7-8, but it seems with every update the
change is delayed by a day. Hopefully by early next week, we will
see some conditions more typical of mid September than mid August.

30

&&

Aviation...
/18z tafs/

While an isolated, diurnal thunderstorm is possible this
afternoon, a large majority of the mid-south will remain hot and
dry. Expect primarily VFR conditions through the taf period with
localized visibility reductions near mkl between 8-12z. Winds will
remain light through the period with a cu field developing around
6000 ft.



&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...none.
MO...none.
MS...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations