Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 191145
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
545 am CST Tue Nov 19 2019
Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.
Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CST Tue Nov 19 2019/
Currently, a weak upper-level trough is moving through the region
which is what sparked scattered showers across the mid-south. Not
much in the way of precipitation remains with some isolated
showers currently situated southeast of I-40. Temperatures are
currently in the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies are partly cloudy across
most areas with mostly cloudy skies in the eastern portions of the
County Warning Area.
We'll dry out today as a ridge is currently located upstream of
the mid-south and will begin to build into the region this
afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today with winds out of the
south-southeast. Highs will be be closer to normal with
temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s.
The dry weather will be short lived as a wetter pattern begins to
settle in beginning Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. A
slow moving cold front will move into the area. Off-and-on rain
can be expected throughout the area Wednesday night through Friday
evening. Rainfall amounts should range in the 1"-2" range. There
is also the possibility of seeing isolated thunderstorms on
Friday with elevated instability and a strong low-level jet
present. Although no severe weather is expected, given the highly
sheered environment coupled with a strong llj, I wouldn't be
surprised to see a strong storm or two - especially with some
wind gusts on the stronger side. Temperatures will be in the mid-
to-upper 60s for highs but will drop into the upper 50s and low
60s on friday; then into the upper 40s and low 50s on Saturday.
High pressure will build into the region on Saturday behind the
front. Dry conditions are forecast through Monday with highs in
the mid-to-upper 50s. Another system will move through the area on
Tuesday, however models are not in good agreement on the timing
of the system or the coverage of the precipitation.
VFR. Southerly winds will shift to the northwest by early
afternoon. Occasional gusts to 15 kts are possible at all sites
through late afternoon. Thereafter...winds will become light and
variable at all sites through the end of the period.