Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 211620
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1120 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019
Rain is rapidly ending from west to east across the midsouth with
clearing skies only about an hour or two behind the precipitation.
Temperatures for the remainder of the day should be fairly steady
or even cool a bit.Dew points in west Arkansas have already
fallen into the upper 30s. It will take several hours for that
airmass to reach the midsouth, but expect a much drier airmass
tomorrow featuring afternoon relative humidity in the 30s.
Previous discussion... /issued 922 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019/
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front are
beginning to push into the mid-south at this time. Best
instability is across eastern Arkansas as higher dewpoints (lower
70s) are surging up the Mississippi Delta. Could see an uptick in
storm strength as the convection pushes into this area. All models
show the convection weakening as it moves east of the Mississippi
River between 12-15z.
This afternoon, models are not showing much in the way of
redevelopment across the area. Expect lingering showers with
embedded thunderstorms occurring across areas of west Tennessee
near the Tennessee River and northeast Mississippi through the
early evening hours.
High pressure will settle over the mid-south for the middle of the
week. Expect dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.
Models still have major differences in solutions for the end of
the week into next weekend thus leading to low confidence in
forecast. The European model (ecmwf) and Canadian continue to show an upper level
low pressure system developing. Although, tonight's run shows the
upper low developing further to the southwest near El Paso, Texas.
As a result, the upper low would be a little later in timing on
its arrival near the mid-south thus instead of rain occurring
during a Friday-Saturday time frame, it may be more of a
Saturday-Sunday time frame. Meanwhile, the GFS continues to not
show an upper low developing and swings a cold front through the
area Thursday night into Friday which would bring rain chances to
the area. The model then shows high pressure settling over the
region for the weekend which would bring dry conditions. For now,
will continue with small probability of precipitation from Thursday night through the
weekend until there is some better model agreement.
Current radar shows the line of showers and storms passing through
the Memphis area impacting mem, oriented northeast to southwest.
Some storms embedded storms within the line have been strong to
severe in nature. IFR/LIFR vis/cig conditions can be expected as
this line passes through. Activity will diminish from west to east
starting at 14z with west winds remaining elevated through 00z.
Skies will start to clear this evening by 00-01z.