Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 131110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
510 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019
Previous discussion... /issued 349 am CST Wed Nov 13 2019/
An upper trough from The Rockies will move southeast today,
placing our area under a shortwave ridge. Ridging, in conjunction
with clear skies and southerly flow in the lower levels, will
allow US to bounce back into the mid-40s today.
By Thursday, another trough will dig south quickly from the
plains and bring a reinforcing cold front with it. Precipitation
with this system will generally be south, in central Mississippi.
However, the European model (ecmwf) shows a chance of precipitation in our far
southeast counties in northern Mississippi. Confidence is low on
whether or not those areas will see precipitation, so decided to
go with lower pops for Thursday evening.
Lows will remain in the mid to upper 20s through the
remainder of the week with high temperatures in the 40s through
Friday. For Saturday, dry conditions will continue, with shortwave
ridging dominating the region. Temperatures will warm into the
mid 50s Sunday before another shortwave trough from the plains
moves eastward. Overnight lows will generally be at or below
freezing for the weekend.
The aforementioned shortwave trough is expected to move into the
mid-south early Monday morning. Models generally show little to no
moisture with this trough, with most of the moisture downstream of
the trough axis southeast of US. Thus, dry weather is expected
with temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday. Model
solutions vary quite a bit after Tuesday, but there's potential
for more precipitation late next week.
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24-30 hours. Light east
winds will shift from the south later today around 6-7kt, then