Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 190453
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 1001 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/
Upper level high pressure will continue to prevail across the
region overnight with mostly clear skies and light winds. Some
patchy fog is possible in the typical spots of west Tennessee and NE MS.
A few high clouds associated with dew point Imelda will skirt southern
sections of the mid-south. Forecast on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 402 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/
Current visible satellite imagery shows a scattered cumulus field
developing across the mid-south this afternoon. Temperatures are
generally in the mid to upper 90's. Similar to yesterday, near
record to record temperatures were forecast for this afternoon.
Memphis currently sits at 99 which exceeds the previous record 97
back in 2010. Tupelo is currently 97 which ties the previous
record of 97 in 1953. Warm and dry conditions will through most of
tomorrow for the mid-south due to upper ridging. Tonight lows will
be in the upper 60's to lower 70's.
Based on recent model trends, the remnants of tropical storm
Imelda will continue to drift north/northwestward into northwest
Louisiana/southwest Arkansas by Friday. This will allow for the
potential of scattered showers and thunderstorms generally west of
the Mississippi River on Friday and Saturday. For the remainder of
the area, mostly rain-free conditions and cooler temperatures are
expected for the weekend. High temperatures through the weekend
will be in the mid to upper 80's. Low's will be in the 60's.
Long term models continue to differ with the breaking down of the
upper level ridge pattern currently over the area. Based on this
uncertainty and inconsistency I have kept rain chances between
20-30% with warmer temperatures. However, there does look to be a
consensus among the models with a transition to northwesterly flow
aloft by mid-week next week.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Some
patchy areas of fog may develop near the kmkl area. A few showers
from tropical depression Imelda may move into southwest sections
of the mid-south on Thursday. Winds will be mainly from the
southeast at 5 to 10 knots for much of the forecast period.