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afdmeg

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
324 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

Discussion...

The heatwave continues. Heat indices have reached the 105f
threshold across the majority of the area in the past hour or so,
but just barely. Decided not to extend the heat advisory into
tomorrow, as confidence remains low in US meeting criteria
everywhere tomorrow. The best chance for a heat advisory will be
for areas along and west of the Mississippi River, where the ridge
will remain strongest. An upper level low, currently located over
the Alabama, will continue to drift eastward into our area
tomorrow. This will lead to increased cloudiness and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas along and east of
the Mississippi River. Expect highs around 90, with heat indices
in the lower 100s.

The ridge of high pressure will continue to retrograde on Sunday.
This will translate to higher coverage of shower and thunderstorm
activity along and east of the Mississippi River. By Monday
morning, a cold front will begin to approach the mid-south from
the northwest. The front is expected to push through the area
during the day on Monday. With northwest flow aloft, a few strong
storms are possible during the day. The front will continue to
push south and through much of the area by Tuesday morning, before
heading down to the Gulf Coast.

Behind the front, models are consistent with significantly drier
and cooler air pushing into the region Tuesday. In fact, the GFS
MOS is spitting out low temperatures in the upper 50s for parts
of west Tennessee, with lower 60s elsewhere. Definitely something
to get excited about for late July in the mid-south. Even more
shocking news, is that this dry and unseasonably cool airmass is
expected to hang around through the end of the workweek as the
surface high pressure remains in place. Highs will generally be
in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s areawide.
Stellar weather to say the least.

Surface high pressure will finally slide east on Friday, allowing
return flow to setup across the area. Unfortunately, this will
bring an abrupt end to our string of Fall-like weather. Expect the
return of Summer humidity along with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

Ac3

&&

Aviation...
18z tafs

Light easterly flow aloft will continue through the next 30 hours.
Best rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances expected near tup, furthest remove from the
upper ridge axis. Otherwise, VFR will prevail.

Pwb

&&

Meg watches/warnings/advisories...
Arkansas...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Clay-Craighead-
Crittenden-cross-Greene-Lee Arkansas-Mississippi-Phillips-
Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Alcorn-Benton MS-
Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

Tennessee...heat advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Benton Tennessee-Carroll-
Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-

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