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fxus64 kmeg 220414 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1114 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Update...aviation discussion.


Previous discussion... /issued 852 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

Skies are mostly clear across the mid-south this evening with
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Dry weather
will continue for the remainder of tonight with temperatures
falling into the 60s across the entire region. Will update
forecast to remove some evening wording.


Previous discussion... /issued 404 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

Scattered cumulus continues to develop across the mid-south this
afternoon due to our westward placement relative to surface high
pressure. Temperatures are currently in the upper 80's to lower
90's. As cloud cover dissipates this evening, temperatures will
lower into the 60's.
Upper ridging will flatten across the southeast on Sunday due to
an upper trough moving across the upper Midwest. At the surface,
a cold front will pass through the mid-south early next week.
Frontal lift and surface heating will allow for an increase in
rain chances for the area. Some hi-res guidance suggests the
rain associated with the front will break apart before reaching
our area. However, I have kept at least a 30% of rain in for the
area. This all depends on timing of the front. Temperatures during
the early part of the week will be in generally be in the 80's to
lower 90's.
By midweek long-term guidance is still fairly inconsistent in
terms of the next chance of measurable rain. Have generally capped
pops at 20% for the remainder of the period. Temperatures for the
long- term will continue to be above average for this time of
year. Ranging from the upper 80's to lower 90's.



Aviation...06z tafs

VFR conditions should prevail at all sites for the next 24-30
hours. Patchy br is possible overnight near mkl. South winds
5-10kt this afternoon, less than 5kt overnight and 10-15kt
tomorrow with gusts 20-25kt. A few showers may approach jbr and
mem by 06z and 12z Sunday night.



Meg watches/warnings/advisories...

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