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fxus64 kmaf 210905 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
405 am CDT Mon Oct 21 2019


Latest sfc analysis places the cold front south of I-10 W/out much
fanfare, having initiated convection on the dryline just east of the
Pecos to our southeast. Post-frontal td's in the single digits signal
another day of elevated fire wx for much of the region, W/afternoon
highs significantly lwr than yesterday, but still above normal. See
fire wx discussion below. This front is not very strong, but
continued cold air advection over the next 24 hours could drop temps Tue another
couple of degrees.

Otherwise, dry, northwest flow aloft will dominate the next few days.
Wednesday, temps will recover into the 80s most locations, but an
upper trough is forecast to drop out of Canada, sending a strong
cold front into the area late Wed night/Thu morning. The NAM, GFS,
and CMC all place the front just north of kmaf at 12z Thu, and near
the Rio Grande at 18z. This could be a midnight high situation for
many locations, but we'd like to see another 6-12 hrs of the NAM and
3-hr GFS before committing when and where. At any rate, Thu looks
to be the first below-normal day in some time, W/afternoon highs
~10f below normal. Temps Friday look to drop farther, W/many
locations topping out in the upper 50s Fri afternoon. Temps warm
Sat/sun, and should be back above-normal Sun afternoon.

The big challenge this forecast will be the possibility of winter
precip Thu/Fri, as all long range models Chase the cold front W/a
deep trough later in the week. The GFS is the most progressive in
moving the trough east, bringing in thru West Texas and southeast
New Mexico Thu afternoon, leaving Bone-dry soundings in it's wake
Thu night. If this pans out, Thu night will be uneventful. However,
other long range models such as the Canadian lag the GFS, bringing
the trough thru the region Fri night. This would leave enough low-
lvl moisture in place and provide enough lift Thu night/Fri to
generate some showers. Forecast soundings suggest the column will
be saturated deep enough/cold enough for some shsn over nrn Lea
County. To make matters worse, the nbm does not take these slower,
wetter models into account that far out. For now, we'll keep precip
chances/quantitative precipitation forecast minimal until models come into better consensus.


Fire weather...

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop this afternoon as very dry air moves into the region and
minimum relative humidity values drop to near 10 percent for many
locations. There will be a brief period of increased winds for the
Guadalupe Mountains and portions of the southeast New Mexico plains
and the Permian Basin. Fuel moisture across the mountains and southeast nm
are not critically dry but dry enough to warrant elevated concerns.
Farther east into the Permian Basin, fuels are pretty much ready to
burn so it won't take much weather to get a fire going. However,
these areas won't see critically strong winds. That being said,
initial attack fires will be the main concern given weather and
available fuels not quite matching up perfectly. Will issue a fire
danger statement for the above mentioned areas.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 77 40 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 78 44 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 83 52 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 78 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 69 44 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 73 40 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 74 41 74 44 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 78 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 78 42 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 80 41 79 46 / 0 0 0 0


Maf watches/warnings/advisories...

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