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fxus64 kmaf 152045 
afdmaf

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
245 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Discussion...

WV imagery shows a weak upper ridge moving into West Texas and
southeast New Mexico, W/vis Sat loop/obs showing ceiling and visibility unlimited conditions
across the region. A very dry air mass remains in place, W/the pwat on
the 12zwv imagery shows a weak upper ridge moving into West Texas and
southeast New Mexico, W/vis Sat loop/obs showing ceiling and visibility unlimited conditions
across the region. A very dry air mass remains in place, W/the pwat on
the 12z kmaf raob coming in at only 2/3rds of normal. Most model
runs from yesterday underestimated the aridity of the ams, as
reflected in temp forecasts.

West/the upper ridge moving in, and return flow in place, temps will
finally come up to around normal Sat. In the meantime, a trough
just off the West Coast is forecast to dig south, separate from the
flow, and close off the coast of baja by 12z Sat. Another trough is
forecast to dig to the MS rvr by 00z Mon, and drop a weak front into
the area Sun morning, taking temps slightly below normal by Sun
afternoon.

Upper-lvl ridging follows the trough, and the area could see temps
Mon-Wed in the (albeit lwr) 70s most locations. During this time,
the closed baja trough is forecast to open and move thru the region,
bringing a chance of -shra Tue night/Wed. Thu, a strong cold front
is forecast, taking temps back down to normal Thu afternoon, and
well-below normal Fri. This front could be such that highs Friday
are reached at midnight, but timing that far out is likely to change
between now and then, so no funky diurnal trends are suitable at the
moment.

While this is occurring, a secondary trough will dig down the West
Coast, and traverse the srn Continental U.S. At the end of the forecast period.
Long-range models that far out offer different solutions on the
track/timing of the trough, but they generally favor a chance of
precipitation beginning Thu night. If enough cold air is in place
behind the secondary front, nrn Lea County could see a little freezing rain/ice pellets
Thu & Fri night. Kmaf raob coming in at only 2/3rds of normal.
Most model runs from yesterday underestimated the aridity of the
ams, as reflected in temp forecasts.

West/the upper ridge moving in, and return flow in place, temps will
finally come up to around normal Sat. In the meantime, a trough
just off the West Coast is forecast to dig south, separate from the
flow, and close off the coast of baja by 12z Sat. Another trough is
forecast to dig to the MS rvr by 00z Mon, and drop a weak front into
the area Sun morning, taking temps slightly below normal by Sun
afternoon.

Upper-lvl ridging follows the trough, and the area could see temps
Mon-Wed in the (albeit lwr) 70s most locations. During this time,
the closed baja trough is forecast to open and move thru the region,
bringing a chance of -shra Tue night/Wed. Thu, a strong cold front
is forecast, taking temps back down to normal Thu afternoon, and
well-below normal Fri. This front could be such that highs Friday
are reached at midnight, but timing that far out is likely to change
between now and then, so no funky diurnal trends are suitable at the
moment.

While this is occurring, a secondary trough will dig down the West
Coast, and traverse the srn Continental U.S. At the end of the forecast period.
Long-range models that far out offer different solutions on the
track/timing of the trough, but they generally favor a chance of
precipitation beginning Thu night. If enough cold air is in place
behind the secondary front, nrn Lea County could see a little freezing rain/ice pellets
Thu & Fri night.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 37 65 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 35 66 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 38 65 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 39 70 45 63 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 39 59 41 56 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 34 64 39 60 / 0 0 0 0
Marfa 33 64 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 37 65 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 37 65 40 63 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 35 67 37 65 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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