Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 220553
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1253 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019
Updated to include 06z aviation discussion.
VFR conditions should prevail through the entire taf period.
Southerly/southwesterly winds will increase during the late
morning through the afternoon hours with wind speeds around 10
knots with gusts nearing 20 knots. Rain showers will approach northern
terminals around 00z Sunday afternoon however timing is still
uncertain so mentioned in prob30 group for now. Wind speeds will
relax to around 5 knots after 00z.
Previous discussion...(issued 624 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019)
Updated to include the 00z aviation discussion below...
Breezy srly winds will weaken this evening...but should return
again for many sites for Sun afternoon. Otherwise...expect VFR
conditions to dominate through this taf period.
Previous discussion...(issued 309 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019)
Short term...today through Monday
Isolated showers across northern Arkansas are dissipating this
afternoon, although will keep low-end pop for any additional
diurnally-driven convection through evening. Elevated winds will
continue through the afternoon hours and subside thereafter,
except across northern Arkansas where a tighter pressure gradient will
keep winds around 10 kts overnight.
Attention then turns to an incoming upper trough that will cross
The Rockies Sunday. This will help squash the persistent upper
ridge across the southeast and will usher in a modest cold front
Monday. Sufficient moisture and instability will support scattered
to numerous showers and storms, especially across northwestern
counties, with slightly lesser chances elsewhere. Ridging across
the Gulf will encourage the front to slow and then stall across
central Arkansas through the end of the period. Parameters are not
widely supportive of severe weather, although a few stronger
storms will be possible.
Temps this period will remain several degrees above average
through the weekend. By Monday, temps will drop a few degrees
across the northern half of the state behind the front. Across the
south, temps will remain several degrees above average.
Long term...Monday night through Saturday
At the beginning of the period, upper ridging centered over the Gulf
of Mexico, which will keep a frontal boundary stalled over Arkansas.
Several disturbances will move around the periphery of the ridge,
and will interact with the front through mid-week, which will keep
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
Late in the week, the upper ridge will, unfortunately, build back to
the north, which will push the front, or what's left of it, back
toward the plains and mid Mississippi Valley. So, kiss the rain
chances goodbye...again...for now.
Needless to say, temperatures will remain above seasonal averages...
but you probably knew that already.