Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 071748 aab
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
1148 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019
Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.
IFR stratus persists invof kpbf/kllq with morning guidance
struggling to resolve the evolution of low cloud cover. Did
include a brief improvement to broken VFR cigs around 07/22z,
although confidence is low and sub-VFR conditions could persist.
Elsewhere, cigs gradually develop and lower after 08/06z with IFR
or worse cigs becoming likely at all terminals in the pre-dawn
hours. IFR/LIFR fog also appears likely for at least several hours.
Minimal improvement expected through the end of the period as low
cigs remain and vis only gradually improves. Gusty winds also
likely at khro/kbpk tomorrow afternoon.
Previous discussion...(issued 346 am CST Sat Dec 7 2019)
Short term...today through Sunday night
It's been a pleasant night and early morning across the natural
state, with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and temperatures in
the 30s and 40s. Latest satellite imagery shows low cloud cover
lingering across the far south, while surface obs are starting to
indicate patchy fog developing across northern portions of the
state. With dewpoint depression values becoming smaller through
the morning hours, expect light patchy fog to spread and linger
through the mid morning. With high pressure overhead, anticipate a
beautiful day for Arkansas with maximum temperatures rising into
the 50s, and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Similar yet slightly warmer weather conditions are expected for
Saturday night/Sunday morning, with lows in the upper 30s and lower
40s and highs in the upper 50s and lower to mid 60s. This is mainly
due to warm air advection from southerly surface winds. Sunday night and Monday
morning will be warmer as well, with lows only dropping into the
upper 40s and 50s. This will likely be due to the addition of
overcast skies ahead of an approaching trough. This will also bring
slight chances for rain showers across the northern portions of the
state late in the period.
Long term...Monday through Friday
A cold front wl be poised to drop southeastward thru Arkansas on Mon, accompanied
by scattered showers/few storms. The front is progged to stall to the southeast
of the forecast area Mon night into Tue as it encounters a SW steering flow
aloft. More widespread rain wl return to much of the area Mon ngt
into Tue as a strong upper impulse interacts with the frontal bndry.
Rain chances wl gradually decrease FM the northwest on Tue as cooler and
drier air advects into the region. Cannot rule out a brief wintry
mix on the northwest periphery of the precip early Tue mrng before tapering
off. Sfc high pres wl settle ovr the forecast area thereafter, resulting in dry
conds and below average temps for the latter half of the work