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fxus64 klzk 210005 
afdlzk

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
705 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Aviation...21/00z taf cycle

Cont to monitor ongoing convection ovr north Arkansas early in the pd,
impacting khro and kbpk, with occasional MVFR/IFR conds at times. Hi-
res model data cont to suggest the activity wl gradually weaken as
it works further to the S. Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail thru
the period. Cannot rule out some isolated convection Wed aftn, but
coverage does not warrant a mention in the fcst at this time. /44/ &&

Previous discussion...(issued 228 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019)
short term...tonight through Thursday

H500 ridging remains in place to the west of the area, with surface
ridging holding strong across the southeast US. Active weather remains just
north of the region in the northwest flow, with a line of thunderstorms
situated near the Ohio River this afternoon. As this activity
continues southeastward, some ts activity may migrate into northern
and northeast parts of the state later today and tonight.

Dangerous heat will persist across the state through tomorrow with
high temperatures in the 90s to around 100 degrees and TD values in
the lower to mid 70s. These conditions will combine to provide heat
index values in the 100-110 degree range again tomorrow.

The upper ridge will contract and more active weather will move into
the state by late Thursday as a cold front begins to sink southward
toward northern Arkansas. A series of shortwaves will traverse the
flow and help lead to showers and thunderstorms developing across
the state, particularly across northern Arkansas.

Long term...Thursday night through Monday

Little change to the going long term forecast as models continue to
show a relatively unsettled weather pattern in the long term. Long
term begins with a cold front just to the north of the state with
rain chances continuing. This cold front will continue to push south
into the state before getting hung up and lifting back to the north
and east. With the front in and around the area in the long
term...this will result in continued rain chances across the state.

As a result of the rain chances across the state, cloud cover will
be increased as well and afternoon high temperatures will be at or
below normal through the long term. Temperatures do start to begin
to warm again towards the end of the long term as the upper level
ridge in western Arkansas begins to push to the east.
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
excessive heat warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-
Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-
Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-Saline-
Scott-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.



Heat advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for Arkansas-
Baxter-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-
Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-
Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-
Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-Pulaski-
Randolph-Saline-Scott-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-Woodruff-Yell.



Heat advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Baxter-Boone-

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