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fxus64 klzk 171214 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
714 am CDT Tue Sep 17 2019


VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. Temporary MVFR
visibilities will be possible due to patch fog before 14z across
central and southern locations before returning to VFR. Light
northeasterly winds will become southeasterly this afternoon at
all terminals. Wind speeds should remain below 10 knots today.


Previous discussion...(issued 325 am CDT Tue Sep 17 2019)
short through Wednesday night

Quiet conditions continue across the County Warning Area early this Tue
morning...with generally light and variable winds...and a mostly
clear sky. This is result of upper level high pressure remaining
overhead...and surface high pressure to the NE. Looking at the bigger
picture...the upper ridge extends north into the northern MS River Valley
region...with a trough over the western Continental U.S.. Hurricane Humberto
remains southeast of the Carolina coasts...with a weak tropical disturbance
just off the Texas Gulf Coast south of Houston. This weak tropical
disturbance off the Texas Gulf Coast could bring some impacts to the
County Warning Area as early as during this storm term period.

While the upper ridge overhead will remain the dominant feature
across the natural will gradually lessen the hold over Arkansas
starting today. As this disturbance slowly moves inland later this
Tue/Tue night...there may be some moisture lifting far enough north
to generate some isolated rain showers/thunderstorms and rain across the far southwestern sections of
the area during the heat of the afternoon hrs. However...most areas
should remain dry...especially further north and east. Highs will
continue well above normal in the upper 80s to upper 90s...similar
to previous days.

By Wed...the tropical disturbance will not have moved too much inland
near the Texas Gulf Coast...and the upper level ridging over Arkansas should
remain. Just like what is possible this Tue afternoon...some
moisture and/or weak upper level energy associated with this
tropical disturbance may move far enough north. This may trigger
some more isolated afternoon rain showers/thunderstorms and rain for portions of the County Warning Area on
Wed. Temps will again be similar to the past few days. Better
chances for more widespread convection look to develop in the long
term period later in the week.

Long term...Thursday through Monday

The long term period begins with broad h500 ridging centered over
the southern Great Plains. The advancement of a tropical disturbance
in the Gulf remains a challenge in the forecast, with most models
tracking its remnants into NE TX, and encountering upper level
shear, and potentially bringing some precipitation into SW Arkansas
Thursday and Friday. Saturday through Monday, several upper level
shortwaves embedded in a progressive longwave trough look to be the
focus for increased precipitation chances across the natural state,
with a focus in northern Arkansas. Increased rain chances in the north
should keep temperatures near normal values, while southern Arkansas is
likely to see temperatures slightly above normal.


Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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