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afdlzk

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
534 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

Aviation...
light wintry precipitation will continue for a few more hours
across the northern terminals with mainly rain for the remainder
of the taf sites. A brief period of snow can not be excluded for
the central terminals. Gusty north winds in excess of 20 mph will
be possible in the wake of the strong cold front that moved
through earlier today. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to
gradually improve as drier air and high pressure begins to build
in with all sites becoming VFR by morning.

&&

Previous discussion...(issued 241 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019)
short term...today through Wednesday

Complicated day one forecast with conditions changing rapidly
through the day today. By these mid afternoon hours currently
seeing the cold front to the south of Little Rock and continuing to
push south. Across North Western Arkansas have seen initial reports
of sleet and some snow, however as precipitation intensity has
increased temperatures have been slow to cool aloft in our County Warning Area and
have begun seeing some reports of freezing rain. Freezing rain
should be short lived as cold air aloft makes its way into the
region.

Temperatures this morning were in the 50's across northern Arkansas
which will help minimize impacts from the wintry weather in the
forecast. However, temperatures will continue to fall through the
evening and overnight with breezy conditions as well. With sustained
winds over 25 mph expected a Wind Advisory has been issued for much
of the state through Tuesday morning. With cold temperatures and
strong winds, bridges and elevated surfaces will cool down faster
and lead to the greatest hazards of this winter weather event.

Winds will remain elevated through much of the overnight hours until
the pressure gradient relaxes. Overnight low temperatures will fall
into the teens to mid 20's with wind chill values in the single
digits to teens. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing
across a good portion of northern and eastern Arkansas on Tuesday,
leading to a prolonged period of below freezing temperatures being
seen in those areas.

Dry weather will return to the forecast Tuesday morning and continue
through the end of the short term with high temperatures warming
close to 50 degrees on Wednesday.

Long term...Wednesday night through Monday

Little changes made to the long term portion of the forecast this
afternoon as model solutions remain in good agreement regarding the
overall pattern. For the first few days of the forecast, well below
normal temperatures are expected along with dry weather as
persistent northwest flow aloft remains in place. Surface ridging will
remain prevalent, after a dry frontal passage is expected on
Thursday, helping to reinforce the cold air across the area through
late week.

Through the weekend, some temperature moderation is expected as
surface ridging slides east of the area and the flow aloft becomes
more zonal to swrly ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.

&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...
Wind Advisory until 9 am CST Tuesday for Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lawrence-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-
Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-prairie-
Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-Scott-Searcy-sharp-stone-Van Buren-white-
Woodruff-Yell.



Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for Baxter-
Boone-Fulton-Izard-Johnson-Marion-Newton-Randolph-Searcy-sharp.

&&

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