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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
232 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019

Short term...today through Monday

Sly stratus is making for an interesting forecast today. Satellite
shows a slowly-narrowing plume of residual low clouds across much of
eastern Arkansas and observed hourly temps remain well below guidance over
this area. Did suppress Max temps for roughly the eastern two tiers
of counties in line with trends so far, yielding highs in the upper
40s. Elsewhere, an uneventful weather day is unfolding with temps
climbing into the low 50s as a thin veil of cirrus passes over
southwestern Arkansas.

Overnight, surface ridging will shift east under largely zonal
flow aloft. Cloud cover will increase markedly and guidance
remains aggressive with patchy fog development tonight into Sunday
morning, although increasing winds could mitigate this some.
Temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30s to low 40s f by
dawn.

Sunday into Monday, weakly phased upper troughing will quickly
translate east and encourage surface cyclogenesis across the western
High Plains. Low-level mass fields will respond relatively quickly
as the surface cyclone deepens with modified Gulf moisture advecting
poleward. Southerly winds will increase and could be breezy by
Sunday afternoon. Temps will climb into the low-to-mid 60s south,
although 50s will be commonplace central and north.

Isolated to widely scattered showers could develop as early as
Sunday evening over far northern Arkansas as forcing for ascent
increases ahead of the incoming system. Slightly better rain
chances will reside across eastern Arkansas through the day Monday ahead
of an approaching front. Temps will only fall into the upper 40s
to mid-50s Monday morning before rapidly warming into the upper
60s to low 70s by afternoon. Given an overall lack of
thermodynamic instability, thinking thunder chances will be
virtually nil through the period.

Cooper

&&

Long term...Monday night through Saturday

The extended period will start off with colder air pouring into
Arkansas behind a cold front. Rain will be ongoing behind the front,
especially in central/southern Arkansas. In the north, if there is
any leftover moisture, there could be a brief period of light snow
in places before precipitation ends.

It will dry out Tuesday night as a large area of high pressure
builds over the state. It will remain dry through at least
Friday with below average temperatures in the forecast.

As the period ends, the high will slide to the east. Return
flow/warm air advection will result in more clouds and small chances
of rain Friday night/Saturday. Temperatures will return to more
seasonal levels.

46

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 39 56 51 66 / 0 0 20 30
Camden Arkansas 42 64 54 72 / 0 0 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 39 55 48 62 / 0 0 20 20
Hot Springs Arkansas 41 58 53 69 / 0 0 10 20
Little Rock Arkansas 41 60 52 69 / 0 0 10 20
Monticello Arkansas 42 62 54 70 / 0 0 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 42 58 52 69 / 0 0 10 20
Mountain Home Arkansas 37 55 48 63 / 0 0 30 20
Newport Arkansas 40 56 51 66 / 0 0 20 40
Pine Bluff Arkansas 41 61 52 70 / 0 0 10 30
Russellville Arkansas 40 57 50 68 / 0 0 10 20
Searcy Arkansas 40 58 51 67 / 0 0 20 30
Stuttgart Arkansas 42 59 52 69 / 0 0 10 30
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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