Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
624 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Some patchy fog is expected this morning, especially across
southern portions of the state. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
continue through the day.
Previous discussion...(issued 328 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019)
short term...today through Thursday night
Not much occurring locally across the natural state this morning,
with a bit more attention being paid to southeast Texas where dew point Imelda
is producing heavy rainfall and is just barely drifting
northward. Looking aloft, h500 ridging remains in place across the
southern US with the ridge axis extending northeastward toward
the Great Lakes.
With dew point Imelda unable to make quick progress northward given high
pressure in place, another dry day is expected across the area.
Cloud cover extending outward from the system will likely only
affect the southern half of the state today, having little impact on
temperatures. Highs will be well above normal again today with
readings expected to top out in the 90s, a few spots could make it
to the century mark.
By Thursday, as dew point Imelda continues its mostly northward course,
more widespread cloud cover and some shower/thunderstorm will begin
to overspread the state from southwest to northeast. The overall
progress of rainfall will be fairly slow, given the continued
influence of high pressure aloft and at the surface. Temperatures
may be a few degrees cooler on Thursday, but humid conditions will
Long term...Friday through Tuesday
The long term period offers some promising points of increased rain
chances and cooler temperatures for the natural state. Remnants of
tropical storm Imelda are forecast to move northward into NE Texas. The
system will remain southwest of the state though and weaken with the
upper low eventually becoming embedded in mean SW h500 flow. The
approach of this system will bring increased rain chances to Arkansas
over the weekend, primarily the western half of the state.
As the weekend progresses, amplified h500 ridging over the southeast US
looks to weaken as a trough approaches the forecast area from the
W/NW. Along with this trough, a cold front will dip south over the
central Great Plains, however it appears unlikely that the front
will make it this far south, likely stalling across East Kansas/west MO late
Saturday. Any precipitation associated with the movement of this
front may extend into north Arkansas through Sunday night. Temperatures over
the weekend will stay quite pleasant in north Arkansas with highs in low- to
mid-80s and highs near 90 degrees along the Arkansas/la border.
For the remainder of the period, pops remain greatest in the
northern half of the state with the presence of the stalled front.
This will continue to keep temperatures relatively cooler than
normal to the north and warmer temperatures in the southern half of