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fxus64 klzk 181941 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
241 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019

Short term...tonight through Tuesday

Mainly diurnally driven convection continues to fire up at this time
with the largest concentration of storms over the western part of
the state. Atmosphere remains supportive of convection through the
evening hours with a few of the stronger storms capable of producing
gusty winds and to a lesser extent, large hail. Heat indices
continue to flirt with advisory criteria but with cloud cover and
developing convection, will hold off on any heat related headlines
at this time.

Upper ridging currently to the west of the state will build into the
region during the remainder of the short term period. The area will
be on the eastern periphery of the aforementioned ridge with a
continuing chance of afternoon convection on Monday. Once again heat
indices will be borderline for a heat advisory although it is some
likely that it will be met briefly at the usual locations during
peak heating.

Ridge will expand eastward on Tuesday and any precipitation chances
will be confined to the eastern sections of the forecast area. South
to southwest winds will continue to pull Gulf moisture into the area
and with temperatures being a little warmer, heat related headlines
will likely be needed.
&&

Long term...Tuesday night through Sunday

Long term begins with a ridge of high pressure centered just to the
west of Arkansas and surface high pressure to the east. Moisture
will be on the increase on Wednesday ahead of a cold front moving
towards the state from the north. Heat index values on Wednesday
will be quite warm with values over 105.

By Thursday the aforementioned cold front will make its way into the
state and bring rain chances to the forecast. This front will stall
across the area before completely washing out. This will keep rain
chances in the forecast through the end of the long term. With the
increased rain chances, temperatures will be kept in check with
temperatures forecast at or below normal.
&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 75 94 76 96 / 20 30 10 20
Camden Arkansas 77 96 76 98 / 10 20 10 20
Harrison Arkansas 73 92 73 93 / 30 20 10 10
Hot Springs Arkansas 77 95 76 97 / 20 20 10 10
Little Rock Arkansas 77 96 77 97 / 20 20 10 10
Monticello Arkansas 77 94 76 96 / 20 30 10 20
Mount Ida Arkansas 76 95 74 96 / 10 20 10 10
Mountain Home Arkansas 73 93 73 95 / 30 30 10 10
Newport Arkansas 75 93 76 95 / 20 30 10 20
Pine Bluff Arkansas 76 94 76 96 / 20 20 10 20
Russellville Arkansas 76 96 76 97 / 20 20 10 10
Searcy Arkansas 75 95 75 96 / 20 30 10 20
Stuttgart Arkansas 75 93 76 95 / 20 20 10 20
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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