Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 141154
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
654 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019
Aviation...14/12z taf cycle
Patchy fog and low clouds wl produce occasional MVFR/IFR conds ovr
mainly central and south Arkansas this mrng. A few locations may briefly
drop to LIFR lvls at times. Otherwise, VFR conds wl prevail for
much of the period. Lower clouds wl incrs acrs S Arkansas tngt as a warm
front begins to lift northward. Expect MVFR ceilings and rain chances to
return to the south terminals toward the end of the fcst period. /44/
Previous discussion...(issued 400 am CDT Mon Oct 14 2019)
short term...today through Tuesday night
Weak ridge of sfc high pres was situated acrs the natural state
early this mrng. Light winds and mostly clear skies have allowed
patchy dense fog to form, primarily acrs the S half of the forecast area. Wl
cont to monitor visibility trends this mrng, but do not anticipate any
headlines at this time.
Model solutions are still in good agreement with overall fcst trends
thru the period. The aforementioned ridge is fcst to shift to the east
today, allowing S/southeast wind flow to return to the region. Meanwhile, a
stalled front to our S wl begin to sloly work northward as a warm fnt tngt
and Tue, eventually working into S Arkansas later in the day Tue/Tue ngt.
Cloud cover and rain chances wl incrs sloly ovr S Arkansas tngt and acrs
the rest of the forecast area on Tue, as abundant moisture lifts up and ovr the
warm front. Most unstable airmass still looks to stay just to our S
of our area, as well as the greatest potential for heavy rainfall.
By Tue ngt, a deepening upr trof in the northern stream wl drop southeastward FM
the upper plains states. This system wl bring another strong cold front
thru the forecast area by the end period. Rain chances wl diminish FM the northwest behind
the fropa, followed by colder and drier air.
Long term...Wednesday through Sunday
Long term begins with precipitation tapering off across southeast Arkansas
as the associated cold front slides to the southeast of the state. This
will leave Arkansas in northwest flow...both at the surface and aloft. The
result will be Thursday morning low temperatures ranging from the
upper 30's to mid 40's.
In the days that follow, surface high pressure will slide east and
keep dry weather in the forecast. Temperatures will gradually warm
with southerly winds returning through the end of the week. The
increase in temperatures and moisture will set the stage for an
approaching cold front that will bring the return of rain chances
and thunderstorms to the forecast.