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fxus64 klzk 162015 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
215 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019

Short term...tonight through Monday
latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear conditions
across the entire forecast area. With clear skies, and a weak near
surface flow, radiational cooling will be maximized overnight.

A weak cold front will move through the forecast area Sunday
afternoon and early evening. Moisture will be limited with this
feature, and only widely scattered light showers or sprinkles are
expected.

Dry conditions are expected for Monday. Expect afternoon
temperatures to rebound noticeably, aided by compressional nature to
the boundary layer flow.
&&

Long term...Monday night through Saturday
the period will begin with mostly tranquil conditions through
Tuesday, with at/above average temperatures. From there, it looks a
little unsettled.

A northwest wind flow aloft will drive a cold front into Arkansas
late Wednesday into Thursday. The front will bring chances of
showers/isolated thunderstorms, followed by cooler air/below average
temperatures.

As the front GOES through, it appears the flow aloft will shift to
the west/southwest. This is in response to a storm system ejecting
from the southwest United States. If this happens, the front would
stall along the Gulf Coast, with a wave of low pressure tracking
along the front to the south.

Not confident in the pattern shift at this time, but kept small
chances of mainly rain in the forecast during the remainder of the
period.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 31 54 36 59 / 0 10 10 0
Camden Arkansas 30 59 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
Harrison Arkansas 33 53 35 61 / 0 20 0 0
Hot Springs Arkansas 32 57 37 62 / 0 10 0 0
Little Rock Arkansas 32 56 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
Monticello Arkansas 33 58 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mount Ida Arkansas 31 58 36 64 / 0 10 0 0
Mountain Home Arkansas 32 53 34 60 / 0 10 0 0
Newport Arkansas 32 52 36 56 / 0 0 10 0
Pine Bluff Arkansas 32 57 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
Russellville Arkansas 34 55 36 60 / 0 10 0 0
Searcy Arkansas 31 54 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
Stuttgart Arkansas 33 55 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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