Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 200106
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
906 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2019
high pressure will remain in place over the region through this
weekend. A cold front will slowly move into our region during
the early part of next week as the high slides to our southeast.
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
high pressure will remain overhead tonight, allowing for clear
skies along with light winds. This will provide a great setup
for radatiational cooling, so min temps will range from the 40s
for most areas to the 50s for downtown Washington and Baltimore.
Min temps may reach the mid to upper 30s in the colder valleys
of the Potomac Highlands, and patchy frost is possible. However,
confidence is too low for a frost advisory since dewpoints are
still holding in the 40s this evening.
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
high pressure will be shifting south of the area Fri leading to
a gradual warming trend. Expect abundant sunshine during the day
and clear skies leading to cool nights. Maxt could get into the
low 90s Saturday. No precipitation is expected.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure that has been situated over our region will start to
shift eastward off the eastern Seaboard on Sunday. A cold front will
approach from the west late Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of this cold
front winds will become southerly. This will lead to warm and more
humid air being advected into our region. Temperatures will trend
upwards Sunday through Monday with daytime highs averaging in the
90s with dew points in the 60s. Overnight temps will be mild in the
A cold front will move through our region late Monday into early
Tuesday. The model trends have shown this frontal passage to be
mostly dry with a chance of a few showers that are expected to
produce minimum accumulations. Behind this frontal passage,
temperatures are forecast to drop down into the 70s on Tuesday with
overnight temps running in the 60s. After the frontal passage
another extended period of dry weather is expected.
Aviation /01z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions expected through Saturday night. Some brief
patchy light possible at kmrb tonight.
VFR conditions expected Sunday through Wednesday with a few showers
possible late Monday into Tuesday.
light and variable winds through Sunday.
Small craft advisories may be needed Monday into Tuesday as a cold
front moves through our region.
tidal anomalies are around 1.5 feet above normal this evening.
Winds have become light and the winds will remain light through
Friday as the gradually turn offshore. This will allow for
anomalies to decrease during this time. Therefore, minor
flooding is expected with the tide cycle late this evening into
the overnight, but confidence decreases for the next tide cycle.
Still kept St. Marys County in an advisory for the next cycle
Friday morning, but confidence is low at this time. For other
areas, did not issue any more advisories at this time thinking
the falling anomalies will keep most areas below minor flood
District of Columbia...coastal flood advisory until 9 am EDT Friday for dcz001.
Maryland...coastal flood advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for mdz018.
Coastal flood advisory from midnight tonight to 4 am EDT
Friday for mdz508.
Coastal flood advisory until 3 am EDT Friday for mdz011.
Coastal flood advisory until 3 am EDT Friday for mdz014.
Coastal flood advisory until 9 am EDT Friday for mdz017.
Virginia...coastal flood advisory until 9 am EDT Friday for vaz054.