Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KLUB 210506 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1206 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Breezy westerly winds expected to develop again for PVW and LBB by Monday afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 902 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ UPDATE... Strong downslope northwest winds occurring into the western parts of the Palo Duro Canyon requiring a quick update for windy conditions centered on the Caprock Canyons area over the next hour or two. RMcQueen PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ AVIATION... Cold front has begun to move across the area and will clear the area by late this evening leading to gusty NW winds behind the front. Winds will weaken late tonight, with breezy westerly winds expected to develop again for PVW and LBB by Monday afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. /WCI PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ DISCUSSION... A decent upper level low has been spinning its way out of Wyoming and into Nebraska/South Dakota today. As impressive as it looks on IR satellite, its precip machine has had a slow start. This feature will continue to move eastward this evening, shoving a cold front through most of the forecast area by midnight. Our breezy afternoon westerly winds will gradually turn out of the northwest with winds settling down after midnight. With dry air already in place, dewpoints across the forecast area are mostly in the 20s and 30s, it appears storms from the advancing front won't develop until the front is east and southeast of our area. Tomorrow is expected to be cooler, especially in the morning, but this is not a particularly strong front, so afternoon temps will top out at just a degree or two below normal. Northwest flow prevails on Tuesday to keep us cool, but Wednesday serves as our "inbetween" day of cold fronts, as flow turns zonal and winds kick up out of the south. It will be the warmest day of the workweek by far. As for the end of the week, models are highly split on solutions for the next cold front. A big shift occurred with overnight runs of the Euro/Canadian models, developing a closed low over the region late Thursday through Saturday morning. Temperatures with these solutions would be getting close to producing some sort of frozen precip across our forecast area; however, other models and ensembles continue with an open trough that dips a bit further east, taking the strongest cold air into OK/NE TX (along with the precip). With this large discrepancy, we have elected to keep only slight chance PoPs with just a mention of flurries mixed in across our northwestern zones. Many model runs are ahead for this system to flip-flop a couple more times. We will watch this system closely. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.