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FXUS64 KLUB 210506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1206 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Breezy westerly 
winds expected to develop again for PVW and LBB by Monday 


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 902 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ 

Strong downslope northwest winds occurring into the western parts
of the Palo Duro Canyon requiring a quick update for windy
conditions centered on the Caprock Canyons area over the next 
hour or two. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ 

Cold front has begun to move across the area and will clear the 
area by late this evening leading to gusty NW winds behind the
front. Winds will weaken late tonight, with breezy westerly winds
expected to develop again for PVW and LBB by Monday afternoon. 
VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. /WCI

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/ 

A decent upper level low has been spinning its way out of Wyoming 
and into Nebraska/South Dakota today. As impressive as it looks on 
IR satellite, its precip machine has had a slow start. This feature 
will continue to move eastward this evening, shoving a cold front 
through most of the forecast area by midnight. Our breezy afternoon 
westerly winds will gradually turn out of the northwest with winds 
settling down after midnight. With dry air already in place, 
dewpoints across the forecast area are mostly in the 20s and 30s, it 
appears storms from the advancing front won't develop until the 
front is east and southeast of our area. Tomorrow is expected to be 
cooler, especially in the morning, but this is not a particularly 
strong front, so afternoon temps will top out at just a degree or 
two below normal. Northwest flow prevails on Tuesday to keep us 
cool, but Wednesday serves as our "inbetween" day of cold fronts, as 
flow turns zonal and winds kick up out of the south. It will be the 
warmest day of the workweek by far. 

As for the end of the week, models are highly split on solutions for 
the next cold front. A big shift occurred with overnight runs of the 
Euro/Canadian models, developing a closed low over the region late 
Thursday through Saturday morning. Temperatures with these solutions 
would be getting close to producing some sort of frozen precip 
across our forecast area; however, other models and ensembles 
continue with an open trough that dips a bit further east, taking 
the strongest cold air into OK/NE TX (along with the precip). With 
this large discrepancy, we have elected to keep only slight chance 
PoPs with just a mention of flurries mixed in across our 
northwestern zones. Many model runs are ahead for this system to 
flip-flop a couple more times. We will watch this system closely.



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