Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS64 KLUB 090935 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 335 AM CST Mon Dec 9 2019 .DISCUSSION... The advertised storm system expected to affect the forecast area today is currently located just off the SOCAL coast. As the day progresses this system will swing through the Desert Southwest and then east towards the region. Ahead of the system, increasing west- southwesterly flow will continue to bring upper and mid-level moisture to the area. Simultaneously, a long way upper level trough will move across the Midwest driving a cold front south and through the FA later this morning. During the latter part of the day large scale ascent from the upper level trough will combine with lift from the front and increased moisture levels to markedly increase precip. chances across our southern zones, with a northern precip. cutoff near Lubbock county. Precip. type will start out as rain and then as temperatures cool tonight into tomorrow morning transition to a rain/snow mix. Morning models and profiles keep things on the warmer side than the past few days. As a result ground temperatures will likely be warmer than previously expected leading to very light accumulations. This system will rapidly exit the CWA tomorrow morning leaving clear skies and cool temperatures in its wake. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week with highs reaching the mid 40s. Temperatures will gradually warm through the week as the weather pattern remains less active. Thursday another upper level trough passes through the FA but continues to look dry with no impacts expected. Friday into the weekend temperatures warm into the 60s as W-NW flow prevails aloft. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.