Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klub 161110
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
610 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019
VFR next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CDT Mon Sep 16 2019/
deep pacnw trough to our west continues to move on shore this
morning as high pressure aloft holds to our east resulting in
continued SW flow over the County warning forecast area. SW flow will remain in tact
tomorrow as the Pacific trough tracks across the Great Basin and a
secondary Pacific storm develops in its wake.
Wednesday, the upper level high will slightly shift east and
elongate as the secondary Pacific storm system digs and moves on
shore. Perturbations in the upper flow and resultant surface Lee
side troughing will combine with increased surface moisture
bringing precip. Chances back into the forecast late Wednesday.
Thursday through the weekend the West Coast trough deepens and
traverses the Great Basin region as the upper level high shifts over
south Texas. According to the GFS this pattern will allow a narrow
plume of subtropical moisture to track up into the area. The European model (ecmwf)
on the other hand remains less bullish with this feature. Have
continued with blended pops Wednesday through the latter part of the
forecast with broader coverage starting Friday. One thing to note is
depending on the track of the Pacific low severe storms could be
possible Friday evening. Long term guidance shows bulk shear values
near 35 kts and MUCAPES over 1000 j/kg but that is nearly a week a
way, so for now we will keep a watchful eye on it.