Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klub 162310
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
510 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours.
Previous discussion... /issued 233 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2019/
shortwave ridging is providing quiet weather and mild temperatures
across Texas today while upstream there is an upper low sliding
southward along the coast of Baja California and also a shortwave trough
crossing the northern and central rockies. The northern wave will
send a cold front racing south tonight which should pass through
the forecast area between about 2 am and 8 am Sunday morning.
Gusty north winds with the fropa will persist through much of the
morning hours before starting to relax around mid-day. There is
not much cold air accompanying the front, but sunday's highs will
ease back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.
Quiet weather will continue Monday and Tuesday with northwest flow
aloft gradually shifting to the southwest late Tuesday. A weak
front/wind shift is expected to work through the area Monday and
temperatures will remain on the cool side, before warming back up
for Tue into Wed.
The upper low current near baja will weaken and quickly pass
across West Texas on Wednesday as a minor shortwave. Some modest
moisture return on increasing southerly winds will produce the
potential for some rain showers as the wave passes. We will also
mention a chance of thunder across srn and ern areas where the
moisture could be a bit deeper.
As that wave races northeast another low will dig to a point off
the coast of socal Thursday. Meanwhile, we will see another cold
front pass through the area. As the upper-low begins to progress
into the Desert Southwest late Thursday into Friday, increasing
southwest flow atop the cooler upsloping airmass behind the front
should bring precip chances back into the area. The medium range
guidance is still showing quite a bit of variety in the timing,
path and strength of the upper-level low as it edges toward West
Texas next weekend which lowers confidence in the details, but it
appears that an unsettled and cooler pattern will persist from late
Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures may be cold enough for
some mixed or frozen precip across the southern Panhandle and
northern South Plains Friday night and/or Saturday night, but it's
still too early to tell if there will be sufficient lift or
moisture at those times for measurable accumulations.