Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klmk 251905
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
305 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019
Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 303 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019
Afternoon satellite data and observations reveal mostly sunny skies
across the region. Temperatures were in the upper 70s over the
Bluegrass region to the lower 80s in the I-65 corridor and points
west. Expect highs to top out in the next hour or so and then a
slow fall is expected this evening.
Overnight, mostly clear skies are expected with light winds.
Probably will see a bit of patchy River Valley fog as lows fall into
the mid-upper 60s.
High pressure will continue to influence our weather for Wednesday
and we'll see a bit more southerly flow as well. This should allow
temperatures to warm a few degrees with afternoon highs in the mid-
Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
updated at 257 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019
Dry and warm conditions will continue into the long term as upper
level ridging continues to build across the central conus, forcing
shortwaves to ride along the longwave pattern well to our north.
It's about to feel like Summer as light southwest flow and lots of
sunshine will allow Max temperatures to reach into the low 90s for
most places across southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Chance of
isolated, diurnally-induced showers/storms increase toward the
weekend as the airmass begins to moisten.
By Sunday, a deep low pressure system comes barreling southward out
of eastern Canada swinging a cold front across the eastern Seaboard.
This puts quite a Dent into the eastern side of central Continental U.S. Ridge,
which may allow for shortwave impulses to begin affecting the Ohio
Valley. As a result, the GFS and European model (ecmwf) are advertising more
widespread chances in precip beginning Sunday afternoon, but the
Canadian model persists with mostly dry conditions. Beyond this
point, the long range models diverge quite a bit so have gone with a
model blend with chance of afternoon/evening showers/storms. Welcome
Aviation...(18z taf issuance)
updated at 107 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019
High pressure building into the region will result in VFR conditions
across the region this afternoon and into the day on Wednesday. We
expect westerly surface winds this afternoon in the 5-8kt range with
a few gusts into the lower teens at times. Winds will slacken off
after sunset with VFR conditions expected at all the terminals. The
outlook for Wednesday is for VFR conditions.