Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 klmk 210648 
afdlmk

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
248 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Short term...(today and tonight)
updated at 245 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Current satellite and radar imagery shows quiet conditions across
the region, as we remain under the influence of a sfc high and upper
level ridge. Unfortunately, the dry streak looks to continue today
for most of the area, excluding those locations that were lucky
enough to experience light showers Friday morning. With that being
said, today will mark 26 days without measurable precip (officially)
in Louisville, while Lexington follows closely behind with 25 days.
As for afternoon highs, most guidance has temps reaching the mid 80s
to low 90s. Given the drought conditions and overachieving temps
lately, have decided to lean on the higher side of guidance.
Otherwise, have morning lows Saturday falling into the mid to upper
60s with the aid of radiational cooling.

&&

Long term...(sunday through friday)
updated at 245 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Next week's weather will hinge on the evolution of the persistent
upper ridge over the southeastern Continental U.S.. one more hot day is
expected on Sunday in fairly Stout pre-frontal SW flow. As has been
the case for quite a while, temp forecast will lean heavily on the
warmer European model (ecmwf) guidance here.

Sharp but progressive shortwave will move through the Great Lakes
Sunday night and Monday, pushing a cold front through the Ohio
Valley. This will bring the best chance in weeks for widespread
rainfall, with pops tapering from 60-70% over southern Indiana to
just 30% over south-central Kentucky, which could be left high and
dry as the front is left behind by its upper support. Quantitative precipitation forecast still
favors the wpc solution with basin averages around a quarter inch in
southern Indiana and a tenth or less over central Kentucky.

Fairly flat pattern through the middle of the week, with briefly
seasonable temperatures expected late Monday through Wednesday
morning under a bubble of sfc high pressure. Next front approaches
mid-week but will get hung up and lose the battle with the
rebuilding upper ridge over the southeast. Will carry slight chance
pops Wed night and Thu, mainly west of Interstate 65. Temps already
above normal will trend toward the unseasonable again by the end of
the week as the ridging continues to amplify.

&&

Aviation...(06z taf issuance)
updated at 100 am EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected during this taf period
as an upper level ridge sits overhead the region. Diurnal cu will
likely begin to build shortly after sunrise, along with increasing
winds (8-10kts) out of the south to southwest. Otherwise, expecting
winds to back southeasterly and become light shortly after sunset.

&&

Lmk watches/warnings/advisories...
in...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations