Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klmk 150827
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
327 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Short term...(today and tonight)
updated at 205 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Quiet weather continues in the short term. Fog has developed near
the center of a +1030mb high just west of the region. Fog is most
prevalent in southern Illinois where winds are calm, though we are
starting to see some fog develop in southern Indiana this morning.
Expect a slight eastward expansion in the fog this morning as the
surface high slowly moves off to the northwest.
Any morning fog that develops should quickly burn off after sunrise.
Surface high pressure will pass north of the region today and keep
winds light out of the north. Temperatures will be a touch cooler
today compared to yesterday, generally mid to upper 40s. Mid to high
level clouds may persist through the morning and early afternoon
hours near the I-75 corridor as a cut-off low in the Gulf states
wraps upper level moisture into eastern Kentucky. Otherwise, expect
mostly sunny skies elsewhere.
Quiet and calm weather can be expected tonight. Lows will drop into
the mid and upper 20s. Mid to high level clouds may stream in from
the northwest after midnight.
Long term...(saturday through thursday)
updated at 305 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Saturday - Sunday night...
The weekend will feature dry weather as the Ohio River valley stays
positioned between notable features in the upper flow. A cutoff low
will move into the Atlantic and slowly wander toward the mid
Atlantic coast, taking all of the deeper moisture well to our south
and east. Meanwhile, a trough will carve out across the north
central conus, but will stay to our west. As a result, expect plenty
of sunshine mixed with clouds at times, especially later in the day
on Sunday. Look for highs mostly in the upper 40s and low 50s. Lows
Saturday night will still be quite chilly in the 25 to 30 degree
range. Sunday night brings low right around freezing.
Monday - Tuesday night...
Troughing over the eastern two-thirds of the Continental U.S. Will dominate the
early week portion of the forecast. Overall, precipitation chances
are pretty low, however will keep plenty of clouds around and
temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. A couple of disturbances
look to rotate through our region around the base of the parent
trough, but models are having trouble with individual timing and the
amount of moisture to work with for each. So, will keep any mention
very Low Key for now, but not zero.
Wednesday - Wednesday night...
The mid week portion of the forecast looks dry as brief upper
ridging quickly progresses over the area, along with high pressure
at the surface. We'll see more sunshine during this time with temps
warming to the low and mid 50s for highs, and lows in the mid to
Thursday - Friday...
More widespread precipitation chances look to be around for the late
week time frame as shortwave energy ejects out of the SW Continental U.S. From
a lingering cutoff low off baja. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave will
be dropping out of south central Canada and into the Great Lakes. At
this time, models have these two systems phasing, which could bring
a decent and fairly widespread swath of rain to the area. Will keep
chances a little higher for that time frame. Highs look to continue
in the 50s with lows mostly in the upper 30s.
Aviation...(06z taf issuance)
issued at 1201 am EST Fri Nov 15 2019
Latest guidance this morning has trended less with fog potential
across the region. Best chance for any short lived fog will be near
hnb, so will include mention of it there, otherwise will leave out
fog for the rest of the taf sites.
After sunrise, any morning fog should quickly burn off. VFR
conditions are then expected the remainder of the forecast period.
Winds will remain generally out of the north.