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000
FXUS63 KLMK 051708
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1208 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Updated at 1001 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Morning satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across southern
IN and central KY. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s as of 10 AM. Current temperature forecast for the
afternoon of low-mid 50s over southern IN and the northern half of
KY still look on track. Upper 50s to near 60 will be possible along
and south of the Cumberland Parkway region. Current forecast is in
good shape and no update will be required at this time. However,
will do a quick data load in the very near term to bring initialized
forecast close to current conditions.
&&
.Short Term...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf states will be ushered
gradually eastward throughout the day today by a shortwave
originating out of the Four Corners. Mostly sunny skies for much of
the day coupled with southerly winds will allow afternoon max temps
to reach into the low to mid 50s across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky and close to 60 across south central Kentucky.
Increasing mid and high clouds will occur this evening ahead of an
approaching cold front, while light rain chances will enter into our
western counties by early Friday morning and continue to spread
eastward across the entire CWA by late morning. Thermal profiles
indicate that this will be entirely a light rain event, ending in
our eastern and southern counties by Friday evening. Southerly flow
and cloud cover will keep Friday morning temps in the low 40s with
highs expected in the upper 40s in the north and increasing toward
the low to mid 50s in our south.
.Long Term...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 231 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
Friday night - Saturday night...
High pressure over the upper Midwest ridging southward to the Gulf
Coast at the beginning of the long term period will head east to New
England. This will keep us dry with seasonable temperatures.
Sunday - Tuesday...
A deep upper trough over the Canadian Archipelago at the start of
the long term will dive south into the United States east of the
Rockies. At the surface a cold front will charge southeastward out
of the Prairie Provinces across the Plains and Midwest, and then
through the Ohio Valley Monday night. Widespread showers will break
out ahead of this system, with a few thunderstorms possible just
ahead of the front Monday evening. Dry air in the 700-500mb layer
may help to keep rainfall amounts in check. Right now the forecast
calls for amounts on the order of half an inch to an inch with the
higher amounts in southern Kentucky. Temperatures will be pleasant
for early December, with highs on Monday in southwest flow ahead of
the front reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Behind the front cold air will rush in as the moisture and
precipitation move out. As of now it doesn't appear that significant
snow is likely given that drier air will move in quickly behind the
front. Still, it's something to keep an eye on over the coming days.
Tuesday night - Wednesday...
Strong Arctic high pressure will invade the northern Plains and Ohio
Valley with cold, dry air. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper
teens to lower 20s. Southern Indiana will likely stay below freezing
on Wednesday.
&&
.Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019
For the afternoon and evening, VFR conditions are expected at the
terminals. Winds will be light and variable but then start to pick
up out of the south by this evening and into the overnight period. A
cold front will approach from the west late tonight bringing mid-
high level cloudiness into the region with showers developing in the
west as early as 06/06-08Z at KBWG/KHNB, and then in the 06/09-12Z
at KSDF and KLEX. VFR cigs/vsbys are expected for much of the
overnight, but latest guidance supports ceilings dropping to fuel-
alternate cigs by 06/12Z with MVFR vsbys due to light rainfall. The
outlook for the daylight hours on Friday is for cigs running in the
FL015-025 range with 4-5 miles of vsbys due to rain showers.
Forecast Confidence Intervals:
This afternoon/eve: High on Cigs/Vsbys
Late Tonight/Friday: Moderate-High on Cigs, Moderate on Vsbys.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
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