Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 klmk 131133
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Louisville Kentucky
633 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
..updated aviation discussion...
Short term...(today and tonight)
updated at 300 am EST Tue Nov 12 2019
..cold this morning...
Strong surface high pressure centered over the region at this hour
will translate to the mid Atlantic coast by later this evening. Dry
and zonal flow aloft will control our region, with a shortwave
trough passing through the Great Lakes region tonight.
Clear skies and calm winds due to the proximity of the surface high
has allowed temperatures to tank into the low and mid teens in most
spots, with some single digits also to note on area obs and a few
Kentucky mesonet sites. Record lows continue to be in jeopardy and
you can reference the climate section of this discussion for more
Temperatures will trend a bit "milder" today as a steady southeast gradient
wind does take hold on the back side of the retreating surface high
pressure. Highs today should mostly be in the mid to upper 30s, with
a few low 40s possible across our far south and southeast. Overnight
lows will also be quite a bit milder, as steady SW surface winds and
a few clouds only allow temps to drop into the 20s. A few decoupled
valleys may still squeak into the upper teens, but the vast majority
of locations will stay in the 20s.
Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
updated at 312 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
Late in the week, a shortwave trough axis running through central
Indiana will extend back to eastern Colorado. This feature will
eventually become a closed off upper low along the northern coast
of the Gulf of Mexico, and then a stronger storm moving up the
East Coast through the weekend. In general, our region stays
between the notable upper features which will keep US dry with
only some increases in cloud cover at times.
As we head into next week, another amplified trough axis develops
over the eastern conus, but it appears that the best moisture
stays well south of our area with another closed low trying to
develop similar to the earlier system. We'll mostly stay void of
any notable weather other than increases in cloud cover.
Temperatures in the long term start off in the 40s for highs on
Thursday, but they will slightly increase every day into the mid to
upper 50s to near 60 Wednesday. Lows will also warm this week. They
will stay in the 20s through Sunday night then increase nightly from
the 30s to around 40 between Monday and Wednesday nights.
Aviation...(12z taf issuance)
issued at 630 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
Mainly a wind direction forecast for this taf cycle, with VFR
conditions prevailing. The center of a strong area of surface high
pressure will slide east of the region by dawn. This will result in
steady southeast wind taking hold. Expect speeds around 5 to 10 mph for
much of the rest of the forecast period, and a few upper clouds at
issued at 300 am EST Wed Nov 13 2019
The very cold airmass behind monday's Arctic front combined with
snow cover and light winds is threatening record lows for today.
Below are the records and current forecasts for our climate sites.
Station forecast low record low
Louisville 13 16/1986
Lexington 8 13/1911
Bowling Green 10 13/1911