Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klix 222014 
afdlix

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
314 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019

Discussion...the region is already under the complete control
of the all powerful ridge. This does not Bode well for seeing much
in the way of rain for the foreseeable future. Luckily today has not
been too rough. Temps were struggling to hit 90s in most of the area
as of 19z and with the slightly lower dewpoints it has been
manageable.

Overall the forecast is rather benign. The ridge aloft and high
pressure at the sfc will maintain control of the area through the
week. This is going to keep the region mostly rain free for the most
part. There is a very small chance late this week we could see
isolated showers. As the ridge slides to the east and a l/west trough
digs across the western half of the conus, the western fringes of
the ridge may weaken enough and allow for a few showers to develop
across portions of south-central la. The other bad thing about the
ridge is daily highs look to inch up the next few days and lower 90s
with a few isolated mid 90s look likely. The one saving Grace is
dewpoints remain on the lower side and should keep the heat from
being too extreme. It also may allow for lows to drop into the
upper 60s across southwest MS and adjacent la parishes.

These temperatures are still well abv normal and there is a very
good chance that the month of September could end up as one of the
hottest, if not the hottest September on record at both msy and btr.
In addition the month of September has been rather dry for much of
the area. If msy does not see anymore rain through the end of the
month it would be the driest September on record as well. That is
not possible for btr as it received just under 2 inches of rain over
a 2 day period, the 17th and 18th. /Cab/

&&

Marine...high pressure continues to build in and this has
caused the pressure gradient to relax through the day. Light to
moderate easterly winds will continue through the remainder of the
day but will continue to weaken overnight with rather light easterly
winds through Monday night. As high pressure sits over the northern
Gulf Coast region winds will then become influenced by diurnal
fluctuations. Not until the end of the work week and next weekend
will winds become persistent out of one direction with onshore flow
developing. /Cab/

&&

,aviation...there are no issues of concern with VFR conditions
expected to persist through the forecast. /Cab/

&&

Decision support...

Dss code: green.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 67 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
btr 70 91 70 92 / 0 0 0 10
asd 67 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 10
msy 74 89 73 92 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 70 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 10
pql 67 91 68 93 / 0 0 0 10

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...none.
MS...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations