Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klix 152126 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
326 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2019

Short term...
area under the influence of a very dry air mass to allow for
optimal radiational cooling into the 30s for the inland areas and
lower 40s in the marine influenced regions. These conditions
prevail through the weekend with temperatures remaining on the
colder than normal side of things. Winds remain northerly

Long term...
the main change in the long term will be a steady warming trend
that brings temperatures above normal Tuesday Onward. Dry
conditions prevail on steady northerly flow and Continental
influences. Winds slowly veer to onshore flow late Thursday into
Friday when next best chance of rain enters back into the forecast
ahead of next decent cold front heading into next weekend.


VFR ceiling and visibility unlimited conditions all terminals next 24-30 hours.


moderate offshore flow tonight will steadily diminish Saturday and
remain at relatively light levels through early next week. There
may be some nocturnal enhancements due to valley drainage over the
bays and sounds, but these localized winds would diminish to
lighter levels once heating mixes out the shallow drainage air.


Decision support...
dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: Small Craft Advisory

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
National significance.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 31 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0
btr 33 58 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
asd 34 61 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
msy 40 59 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
gpt 36 60 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
pql 35 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for gmz536-538-550-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 am CST Saturday for gmz538-550-552-


National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations