Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 200801
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
301 am CDT Fri Sep 20 2019
above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions will prevail
through the next week. The best rain chances during this period
will likely be today with isolated to scattered convection
expected. The higher rain chances today will be over the western
half of the forecast area where the better moisture will reside.
Some drier air will begin pushing westward into the forecast area
today which will limit the chances for convection across eastern
zones, especially coastal Mississippi. This drier air will filter
across much of the area into the weekend, but will be most noted
across eastern and northern sections of the forecast area. As a
result, it will feel a bit less humid and nighttime lows will be a
little lower...primarily across south Mississippi and the Florida
parishes of southeast Louisiana. Otherwise, ridging aloft will
dominate the Gulf south with some weakening and suppression of the
ridge during the middle and end of next week as a couple of short
wave troughs pass to our north and northwest. Generally went a
bit above guidance for daytime highs, especially through the
weekend, given recent model guidance performance and the dry
conditions across much of the area. 11
VFR category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals
during the taf forecast period. Isolated to scattered convection
today could impact any of the terminals, with kgpt having the
least chance. The convection should mostly dissipate after sunset.
a tightening pressure gradient will result in moderate to strong
easterly flow across the coastal waters through the weekend.
Exercise caution headlines will be needed during this period for
all locations but the tidal lakes with even Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible at times. The winds will relax going into next
week with high pressure prevailing across the region. 11
dss code: green.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 89 68 89 68 / 20 10 10 0
btr 88 71 90 71 / 40 10 20 0
asd 90 70 90 69 / 30 10 20 0
msy 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 20 0
gpt 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 10 0
pql 90 70 90 69 / 20 10 10 0