Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 201047
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
547 am CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
..updated aviation section...
Not much unlike yesterday morning, sh/ts will move into the area
while dissipating. Strong possibly severe thunderstorm should make
its way into northern tier of counties in southern miss before
dissipating or at least weakening below severe limits. Otherwise,
not expecting much in the way of severe as the line continues to
leave its source region and dampen. But a few thunderstorms will
be possible along with some gusty winds as high as 25 to 30mph.
This line should weaken further while leaving an outflow boundary
over the area with a cool pool. This will help to reignite sh/ts
around and after noon today as heating will help re-energize the
cells along the outflow. This will need to be watched as dry air
will begin to be entrained into any storm capable of producing
lightning. The more lightning a cell can produce, the more likely
it will be severe with downbursting winds. We can't leave any Mode
of severity off The Table since even helicity values which will
be lacking during the morning, begin to increase rapidly by noon
and after. So we will call for all modes possible with damaging
winds being the most expected with any severe wx. This is not
expected to be a widespread event, but isolated severe
thunderstorms will be probable.
Friday looks like only heating to produce any convective elements.
It may take a little more to get a thunderstorm going, but the
same elements will still be in place for any thunderstorm that can
develop to produce sever wx once again. But Friday numbers are
expected to be lower.
By Sunday, moisture is able to make a deeper comeback causing
convective temps to lower and pws to increase as well. This simply
relates to better coverage in rainfall. There could be a few more
mesoscale convective system type features that rotate out of Texas Monday morning bringing a
line of thunderstorms. Early into next week, we begin to fall on
the periphery of the large high that will have moved southwest
binging our area into this so called "ring of fire" where mesoscale convective system
complexes will develop to the west and move over the area each
night into the day. This is several days out and will depend
greatly on exactly where this belt of sh/ts sets up.
Updated to reflect latest radar/observation trends. Watching a
remnant boundary of showers moving across southern MS and north of
I-10/12. Only impacts with this boundary is brief gusty winds and
a wind shift to more around 260-280 degrees. This boundary will
eventually continue to fall apart later this morning. Otherwise, a
few isolated showers have developed across the area, but will not
increase in coverage or intensity. Expect VFR conditions for all
area terminals by mid to late morning, before more spotty
showers/storms develop early to mid afternoon. Which areas see
better coverage or intensity will depend on where the current
eastward moving boundary sets up. Looking like generally east of
I-55, including southeast la and coastal MS. In any one storm later
today, strong storm downdrafts may cause gusty, erratic winds
along with lowered cig's periodically reducing flight categories.
This convection dissipates later tonight revealing VFR conditions
for all area terminals through tomorrow morning. Klg
Winds will rise a bit into caution conditions today and will keep
this though 3pm today. Winds will ease just a bit to around
10-15kt afterwards. Southwesterly direction will be maintained
until the weekend then becoming more southerly. Wind speeds will
slowly lower through the weekend and become rather light and
possibly erratic as a sfc high moves southwest over the area by
the start of the work week.
Dss code: blue.
Activities: river flood warnings
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue =long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red =full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of National
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 93 74 92 75 / 40 0 30 0
btr 93 77 92 77 / 40 0 20 0
asd 93 76 92 76 / 30 0 20 0
msy 93 79 92 79 / 30 0 20 0
gpt 91 78 90 78 / 30 0 20 0
pql 92 76 92 76 / 30 0 20 0