Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 192124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
424 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
latest radar shows showers and thunderstorms across the
Mississippi Gulf Coast. These showers and storms could push across
the forecast area tonight. Have increase rain chances some for
this evening. Rain chances will remain slightly elevated as we are
on the fringes of Imelda especially for the western portions of
the County Warning Area. Expect scattered afternoon convection for Friday, but we
should see rain chances trend down over the weekend. High
pressure should creep back into the area to help suppress
convection some. The upper ridge may weaken somewhat heading into
the middle of next week, but still rain chances will be limited.
There are still no significant cold fronts on the horizon to bring
US any Fall weather. Temperatures will continue to run above
normal during the period and daytime temperatures have been raised
above guidance based on what has been observed the past few days
and given the dry conditions in most areas.
VFR category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals
during the taf forecast period. Latest mosaic radar showed
scattered convection from northeast Jackson County to east the
Mississippi Delta. This activity will sweep west and increase in
coverage later this afternoon. Will insert tempo for convection
this afternoon. Convection should end after 00z and some patchy
fog may affect a few inland sites Friday. 18
exercise caution headlines have been posted for most of the
coastal waters starting this evening. A tightening pressure
gradient will increase easterly flow across the coastal waters
through the weekend. Small Craft Advisory may be needed at some
point during the weekend if the gradient is a little bit stronger
that anticipated. Winds should relax early next week.
dss code: green.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 71 87 68 89 / 40 30 10 10
btr 73 86 71 89 / 30 30 10 20
asd 72 88 69 89 / 40 30 10 20
msy 78 88 76 89 / 30 30 10 20
gpt 72 86 71 87 / 30 30 10 20
pql 70 88 70 90 / 30 30 10 10