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fxus64 klix 210832 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
332 am CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

the weather through the next week is expected to be fairly quiet
as a mid/upper ridge dominates the southeast conus and Gulf
states region. Ridging aloft and drier air that will continue to
work into the region over the weekend and into early next week
will act to limit convection coverage for the next several days.
Precipitable water values are forecast to drop to near one inch
or a little less across much of the forecast area by early next
workweek. The best chances for convection during the forecast
period are today across the southwestern two thirds of the
forecast area where somewhat higher moisture will continue to
reside, and then late next week when the upper ridge briefly gets
suppressed to the south. In between these times, only isolated
convection is expected and that will mainly be across coastal
areas of southeast Louisiana. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal. Through this weekend, tides levels will run around
1 foot above normal as moderate to strong easterly winds persist
across the north Gulf. This may result in some minor coastal
flooding and inundation in low lying and flood prone areas of the
Mississippi coast, eastward facing shores of southeast Louisiana,
and adjacent land areas of Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
during this time period...especially during astronomical high
tide. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for these area into
Sunday morning. 11


VFR category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals
through the taf forecast period outside of any isolated to
scattered convection that may impact the taf sites. Kmcb and kgpt
will have the lowest chances for any showers or thunderstorms. 11


strong easterly winds will continue across the coastal waters
through tonight before beginning to ease on Sunday and especially
by Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. As a result, the Small
Craft Advisory has been extended through tonight for all of the
Gulf coastal waters as well as Mississippi, Breton, and chandeleur
sounds. Exercise caution headlines will continue for the tidal
lakes today. Thereafter, lighter and occasionally variable winds
will be observed through the middle of next week. 11


Decision support...
dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: Small Craft Advisory and coastal flood advisory

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
National significance.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 90 68 90 67 / 20 10 10 0
btr 89 71 89 70 / 30 10 10 0
asd 89 70 90 69 / 20 10 10 0
msy 89 74 90 74 / 30 10 10 0
gpt 89 73 89 71 / 20 10 10 0
pql 90 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 0


Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for gmz532-536-538-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for gmz536-538-550-

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