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fxus64 klix 210457 
afdlix

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
1157 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Aviation...
VFR ceiling and visibility OK conditions at all terminals though breezy easterly winds
may have daytime gustiness running close to 20-23kt with thermal
mixing, particularly those influenced by marine proximity.
Gustiness should abate with sunset with some possible advection of
few-scattered marine layer stratocumulus deck later in the evening
hours. 24/rr

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 353 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019/

Discussion...
upper level ridge extends for most of the southern Continental U.S. Through
the Atlantic with a surface high just off the coast of the eastern
coast around Virginia to Georgia. Drier air moving in from the
east has lowered precipitable water values to around 1.5 inches for a good portion
of inland southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. As a
result, heat indices today were lower today and should generally
be less humid through the weekend. Temperatures, on the other
hand, will likely stay right in the 90s through this weekend and
into next week. The area will continue to be under a weaker ridge
through next week. -Bl

Aviation...
VFR category conditions will generally prevail at the terminals
during the taf forecast period. Isolated to scattered convection
this afternoon could impact any of the terminals, with kgpt having
the least chance. The convection should mostly dissipate after
sunset. Easterly wind flow will prevail especially for taf sites
near the coast. 18

Marine...
strong easterly winds will affect the coastal waters through the
majority of the weekend. Because of this a Small Craft Advisory
has been issued for the coastal waters and small craft exercise
caution for the tidal lakes. One or both may need an extension
with the eastern half of the coastal waters the most likely.
Additionally, due to the easterly flow and high tides some coastal
flooding may be possible for eastern coasts. Currently opted out
of any coastal flood advisories but that will need to be watched.
After this weekend, winds will subside and high pressure will
prevail through next week. -Bl

Decision support...
dss code: blue.
Deployed: none.
Activation: none.
Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
National significance.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 68 89 67 91 / 10 20 10 10
btr 71 90 71 91 / 20 20 10 10
asd 71 89 70 90 / 10 20 10 10
msy 77 87 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
gpt 73 87 72 88 / 10 20 10 10
pql 71 89 70 90 / 10 10 0 10

&&

Lix watches/warnings/advisories...
la...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for gmz532-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...none.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for gmz536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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