Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 172031
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
331 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
an upper level shortwave trough is moving through our area today
through Wednesday. Winds will be generally southerly through the
week, which will bring an influx of warm air advection and
moisture into the area. Weak upper level divergence will lead to
some lifting in the atmosphere. As a result, showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected as this trough moves through our area
today through Wednesday.
Beginning Thursday, a high pressure system is expected to begin
building over our area and will persist through the weekend.
Southerly winds will persist through the weekend, enhancing the
warm air advection and moisture advection into the area. Upper
level convergence and lower level divergence will lead to sinking
air and stability in the atmosphere. As a result of the high
pressure and moisture availability, the temperatures are expected
to be warmer over the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
In addition, if the high pressure system weakens over the
weekend, it will be possible to see a summertime shower or two due
to the high moisture content in the atmosphere.
For the beginning of next week, a near normal flow pattern is
expected to dominate and conditions should return to near normal.
VFR conditions will be the majority of the forecast period.
Convection is already ongoing and will be scattered throughout the
afternoon until around the evening. Category drops are possible in
and around any storms. Went with thunderstorms in the vicinity and tempo groups to cover
this. Winds generally are S to SW 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts
possible with any convection. -Bl
southerly to southwesterly flow will dominate tonight through the
weekend. The wind speeds over the next few days should remain
relatively light (<15 knots). Beginning Wednesday night the
pressure gradient will be tightening up, so the winds will begin
to be higher (15-25 knots)and will persist through the weekend.
Corresponding to the wind speed, the wave heights will be higher
beginning Wednesday night as well. Msw
dss code: blue.
Activities: flood warnings continue along the Mississippi River.
Decision support services (dss) code legend green = no weather
impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain. Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of National
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 71 89 71 90 / 50 70 10 50
btr 73 89 74 90 / 40 70 10 50
asd 73 89 74 91 / 40 70 10 50
msy 76 89 77 90 / 40 70 10 40
gpt 75 87 76 88 / 40 60 20 50
pql 73 89 74 90 / 30 60 30 50