Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 220823
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
323 am CDT sun Sep 22 2019
ridging aloft will dominate the southeast conus and Gulf Coast
states through the forecast period, although it will be
suppressed to the south to some degree during the last part of
the upcoming workweek before strengthening again over the region
next weekend. This, along with relatively dry air, will serve to
inhibit much in the way of convective development during the
period. The best chance for convection will be during the last
half of the workweek when the ridge weakens, but even then only
isolated showers and storms can be expected. Otherwise, mostly
sunny skies and above normal temperatures will be in the offing.
Tides are running around 1.5 above normal this morning along
portions of the coast, but should begin to subside today after
the astronomical high tide cycle this morning as the easterly
winds across the coastal waters start to diminish. 11
VFR category conditions are expected at each of the terminals
through the taf forecast period. 11
the pressure gradient will begin weakening across the coastal
waters today and especially tonight into Monday resulting in
diminishing winds. The Small Craft Advisory will replaced with
exercise caution headlines for today with this forecast package.
After today, winds will become generally light and at times
somewhat variable across the coastal waters into the middle of the
dss code: green.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 90 67 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
btr 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
asd 90 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
msy 90 74 90 73 / 10 0 0 0
gpt 89 70 90 70 / 10 0 0 0
pql 90 67 91 68 / 10 0 0 0