Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 240925
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
425 am CDT Wed Jul 24 2019
cold front has passed and what a difference. Dew pt temps have
fallen into the lower 60s north to around 70 south. This has made
the air feel a lot nicer than yesterday. Even temps have fallen
into the 60s north and mid 70s south this morning. This air won't
last very long though as the deep moisture ahead of the stalling
front will lurk just offshore and finally move back into the area
Friday into Friday night. This will cause precip chances to rise
once again as well. Upper trough has also began to put on The
Breaks and will eventually elongate from NE to SW. This jet does
not provide a very hospitable environment for purely tropical
systems to thrive. But to see one or two sfc lows spin up along
the sfc frontal interface is not uncommon, especially when there
is a thermal difference as we have with this front and an upper
jet providing some dynamic support. But there are always
exceptions to the rule. It normally takes a while, but systems can
develop in a cold core environment and evolve into a tropical
system. The hurricane center has the area along the front with 20%
of developing such a subtropical or tropical sfc low. It would not
be at all surprising to see one or two seperate weak sfc lows
along this frontal boundary over time. And most models do bring at
least one sfc low to the northeast along the boundary into the
northeast Gulf over time.
VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals for the forecast
period. Wind speeds are a bit elevated currently in the wake of a
cold front but should come back down later today. -Bl
winds have shifted to offshore flow and also picked up in the wake
of the cold front so will continue the small craft exercise caution
for the lakes/sounds/nearshore waters though 18z. Afterwards, winds
will become lighter again, then onshore flow will return around
Friday. Convection will be still be possible for the next couple of
dss code: blue.
Activities: ongoing river flooding on Mississippi River.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 86 64 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
btr 85 66 89 69 / 0 0 0 0
asd 88 67 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
msy 87 72 89 74 / 0 0 10 10
gpt 87 69 89 72 / 0 0 10 10
pql 90 68 91 70 / 0 0 10 10