Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 230901
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
401 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019
latest upper air analysis/water vapor satellite imagery revealed
mid/upper level ridge centered over the southeast Continental U.S. With an axis
stretching westward across the Gulf Coast states. Surface high pressure
extends from the mid-Atlantic SW into southeast Texas. Klch radar depicting
some streamer type shower activity over the Gulf waters west of
Cameron within a moisture plume on the western flank of this high,
lifting northwest into coastal Jefferson County.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
today across East Texas within the region of higher moisture content, with
dry weather expected across the rest of the area. This diurnally
driven activity will dissipate by early to mid evening. High
temperatures across southeast Texas will be near seasonal normals, with
above normal readings elsewhere.
The mid/upper ridge is progged to meander about the Gulf Coast
states over the next several days, with some relatively drier air
working into the area later tonight into Tuesday shutting off rain
chances Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures at or above seasonal normals
are expected during this time period.
Rain chances will return by late week and and into at least the
first half of the weekend as a digging western Continental U.S. Trof amplifies a
downstream ridge over the NE Gulf Coast, yielding a strong/deep
southerly fetch into the region. Rain chances look to lower again
sun into Monday as the ridge expands westward.
high pressure will continue to ridge west over the coastal waters
this week, resulting in a persistent east to southeast flow.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected
today over the waters west of Cameron, with rain chances
decreasing Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to
increase once again toward the end of the week.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 93 70 93 69 / 10 0 20 10
lch 91 74 90 74 / 10 0 0 0
lft 91 72 91 72 / 0 0 0 10
bpt 87 74 87 73 / 30 0 0 0