Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 072128
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
328 PM CST Sat Dec 7 2019
Discussion...some stratocu persists over the I-49 corridor but
skies are sunny/mostly sunny elsewhere. Do expect a westward
redevelopment of this low level cloudiness through the night as
temperatures cool, but again eroding advancing through Sunday.
Currently seeing a fairly healthy temperature gradient as a result
of todays cloud cover or lack of. Southeast Texas obs currently
coming in from the upper 60s to lower 70s, the I-49 corridor in
the upper 50s to lower 60s where clouds have held on longest.
Temperatures return to more seasonal norms tonight as a cool high
pressure ridge eases into the area. Looking for lows in the mid
40s north, into the upper 40s to around 50 across the southern
portion of the area. Temperatures should return to above the norm
for afternoon highs Sunday as high pressure advances east of the
region and southerlies become reestablished. Significantly warmer
temperatures then on tap for Sunday night lows with the return
flow in place, while mondays highs will be closing in on record
territory. Changes then coming.
A strong cold front will advance across the area Monday night into
early Tuesday. Widespread showers and possibly a thunderstorm or
two can be expected with the frontal passage with overrunning
rains/elevated showers persisting through Tuesday in the wake of
the boundary. Timing of frontal passage followed by strong cold air advection suggests a
rather dismal Tuesday with temperatures falling through the day.
Rain chances will taper off Tuesday night, but will maintain some
pops Wednesday area-wide with the approach of a shortwave trof
across Texas now similarly depicted by both the GFS and European model (ecmwf).
light east to northeast winds can be expected overnight,
transitioning to moderate onshore Sunday as cool high pressure
advances east of the region. Widespread showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are expected to develop over the northwest Gulf
Monday night, with this activity continuing through Tuesday as a
vigorous cold front moves across the northwest Gulf. Strong
northerlies will follow in the wake of this boundary with seas
rapidly building. Flags will likely be required.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 42 70 54 78 / 0 0 0 30
lch 48 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 30
lft 47 71 56 78 / 0 0 0 20
bpt 50 71 61 78 / 0 0 0 20