Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 211141
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
641 am CDT Wed Aug 21 2019
Predominately VFR conditions are expected at area taf sites
through today. Scattered/broken cumulus from 2000-5000 should develop by
mid-morning. Thunderstorms in the vicinity are expected from 17z-23z with more robust
thunderstorms producing tempo MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty
winds. Convection should diminish by 02z with clearing skies
continuing through the rest of the evening hours. Patchy MVFR fog
will be possible during the overnight hours but the probability
and predictability of any operational impacts was too low to
include in the tafs at this time.
Previous discussion... /issued 300 am CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/
wx map shows sfc high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf,
yielding a light south to southeast flow across the region,
typical for this time of year. Temperatures in the mid to upper
70s, with dewpoints maybe a degree of two lower, making for
another muggy morning. With the wet ground, mostly clear skies
and nearly calm winds, patchy fog will be possible mainly north of
the coastal parishes/counties.
Radar not showing much convection offshore, but likely to increase
before daybreak across the coastal waters. Like in past days, this
will translate to increased chances inland, with slightly higher
chances for Acadiana this afternoon. Lower chances for inland southeast
Texas with slightly higher temperatures for the afternoon. This
pattern can be expected again on Thursday.
By early Friday morning, even higher moisture and lift associated
with a tropical wave (across the Yucatan this morning) will be
moving across the northwest Gulf into our coastal waters, and
further inland for the remainder of the day Friday into Saturday.
Rainfall could be quite generous across any given area, as nam12
precipitable water is expected to be around 2.25-2.50". Aloft, a
shortwave moving across Texas into la during this period will
provide sufficient lift. Obviously too early to pinpoint where the
excessive rain will occur, but keep in mind the potential will be
Once this tropical wave moves north and east of the region, expect
slightly lower chances of showers and thunderstorms, but not by
much. It appears abundant moisture and daytime heating will keep
the repetitive pattern of late morning/afternoon showers and
thunderstorms well into next week.
high pressure continuing to ridge west across the northern Gulf
of Mexico will maintain a light to occasionally moderate onshore
flow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the late
night and morning hours, will continue through Thursday. Showers
and thunderstorm chances will increase for Friday and the weekend
as an easterly wave moves across the region.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 92 73 91 73 / 40 20 60 10
lch 91 76 90 77 / 50 30 60 30
lft 90 75 89 75 / 70 20 70 20
bpt 90 77 89 77 / 50 20 50 30